Trump leads Biden with independents: poll

 November 13, 2023

Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden among independent voters, a new Cygnal poll found - the latest signal that Trump is gaining momentum less than a year out from the 2024 presidential election.

44 % of independents would vote for Trump, and 38 % would back Biden if the election were held today, the poll found. 18% of independents are undecided.

Trump's favorability is six points higher among independents than Biden's.

Trump tops Biden with key demo

The poll also found that Biden would fare better against a "generic Republican" than Trump, contrary to Trump's Republican critics, who say he is a drag on the party.

While Biden leads Trump by just two points, that gap grows to four points against a non-Trump Republican.

Overall, Biden leads Trump 47 % to 45%. When independent candidate and ex-Democrat Robert F. Kennedy is considered, Biden's lead shrinks to a single point.

With RFK in the race, both Trump and Biden lose eight points with independents. Trump still leads with 36%, compared to 30% for Biden and 17% for RFK.

The poll was taken from October 30 to November 1, 2023, among 2,000 likely general election voters, and has a 2% margin of error.

The poll identified three groups in a segmentation analysis - Republican base, Democratic base, and "moderates."

The moderates preferred Trump over Biden by 7 points. When choosing between Biden and a non-Trump Republican, moderates were split. 

Voters are slightly more likely to say the Republican party is "extreme," but their top concerns are the economy (31%) and illegal immigration (15%) - both issues on which Biden has a poor record.

Warning signs for Biden

Biden is facing broad skepticism of his age and fitness and widespread dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, as high interest rates and persistent inflation continue to crush the middle class.

Meanwhile, illegal immigration through the southern border has hit all-time highs, and two wars abroad have added to a picture of chaos under Biden's leadership.

Trump is dominating the Republican presidential primary, making a re-match with Biden appear very likely - if not for the pressure Biden is facing to reconsider his campaign.

A recent New York Times poll that showed Biden losing soundly to Trump in key swing states grabbed lots of attention. Recent polling has also shown Trump gaining with young voters, a demographic that was key to Biden's coalition in 2020.

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