Trump appears poised for 2024 victory in Pennsylvania

 December 26, 2023

Former President Donald Trump surprisingly won Pennsylvania in 2016 but then lost the Keystone State in 2020. That perennial electoral swing state appears poised to once again play a deciding factor in who will be victorious in the 2024 election, according to The Guardian.

Despite everything that has occurred since the 2016 contest, good and bad, Trump still retains solid support among Pennsylvania voters and has a real chance at winning that crucial state in a 2024 rematch against his 2020 opponent, President Joe Biden.

Trump's support in Pennsylvania remains strong

The Guardian recently sent a reporter to Pennsylvania's Luzerne County, which former President Trump won handily in both 2016 and 2020, and found that it was still a "stronghold" of support for the leading Republican presidential candidate.

That support was apparent even as the reporter pressed Trump supporters over the former president's remarks in an interview and rally speeches about being a "dictator" if re-elected to the White House.

Many of those supporters countered the reporter by pointing out the surrounding and limiting "day one" context of those remarks, that they were focused on fulfilling longstanding campaign promises -- securing the southern border and increasing domestic energy production -- and that Trump's dictatorial assertion had obviously been a joke to troll his opponents.

In the end, and while the margin may be closer in the next election, it looked like Trump was likely to win a majority of voters in that county once again and, perhaps, the rest of the critical swing state as well.

Trump poised to win Pennsylvania primary and general elections

The idea that former President Trump could win over voters in the perpetual swing state of Pennsylvania is not particularly far-fetched and is supported to an extent by numerous public polls.

First, there is little question that Trump will prevail in the Keystone State's 2024 Republican primary election in April, as the RealClearPolitics average of state polls shows him with 58% percent support and a 43.3-point lead over his nearest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has around 14.7% support in that state.

Of course, presuming the 2024 general election is a rematch of the 2020 contest, as virtually all polling strongly indicates, the race will be much tighter by RCP's average of Pennsylvania general election polls suggest that Trump has a 1-point lead over President Biden, who often cites that state as the place where he was born and raised.

Trump leading nationwide primary and general election polls

Looking beyond just Pennsylvania, the RCP average of Republican primary polls on the national level shows that former President Trump is essentially awaiting only the mere formality of the GOP's summer convention to be named as the party's presidential nominee for the third election cycle in a row.

Trump garners about 63.8% support from Republican voters nationwide, more than 52 points ahead of Gov. DeSantis at 11.6% support and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 10.8%, with all other remaining GOP candidates drawing less than 5% support.

As for the 2024 general election polls, RCP has shown that Trump pulled ahead of President Biden in October and continues to lead that hypothetical rematch by anywhere from 2-3 points, with the two presumptive nominees currently pegged at 46.8-44.5% in favor of the former president over the incumbent.

Trump has a real shot at winning 2024 rematch against Biden

To be sure, there is a lot that can happen to change things in the roughly 10 months that remain between now and the November 2024 election and it remains possible that either former President Trump or President Biden, if not even both, will fail to be named as their respective party's presidential nominee for a variety of different reasons.

That said, if things continue to track the same way that they have been for the past few months, Trump will win the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania and go on to also win enough other states to secure victory in the Electoral College and triumphantly return to the White House in January 2025 to begin a second term as president.

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