Trump seems set to lose case on presidential immunity but is still winning in the polls

 January 10, 2024

Special Counsel Jack Smith appears to be winning on the issue of whether former President Donald Trump is immune from prosecution. Yet even if Smith prevails, polls suggest that he has still handed Trump a miracle. 

According to NBC News, members of a three-judge panel for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit seemed "skeptical" as they heard arguments from Trump D. John Sauer.

Trump lawyer suggests Biden could be prosecuted over border crisis

Sauer maintained that Trump enjoys immunity for official actions that he took while in office, something which would preclude Smith from prosecuting the former president over his conduct following the 2020 election.

The attorney argued that if such a principle is not recognized, then President Joe Biden is liable to be prosecuted after his term for "mismanaging the border allegedly."

However, Judge Karen Henderson remarked that "it’s paradoxical to say that his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed allows him to violate criminal law."

Meanwhile, Judge Michelle Childs recalled how President Richard Nixon was pardoned following his 1974 resignation, something she said points to "an assumption that you could be prosecuted."

Questions over whether president could have rivals killed

USA Today noted how Judge Florence Pan at one point raised the prospect of a president dispatching Navy SEALs to assassinate his political rivals.

"You’re saying a president could sell pardons, could sell military secrets, could order SEAL Team 6 to assassinate a political rival?" the newspaper quoted her as asking.

Sauer responded that he believes such a president could be criminally prosecuted but only following an impeachment and conviction by Congress.

Polls suggest Trump has benefited from charges

Interestingly, attempts by Smith as well as Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to convict Trump have thus far benefited him politically.

That phenomenon was examined in a Washington Post article published last week, which recalled how Trump's reelection campaign had a "lackluster" beginning.

"Thirteen months later, on the cusp of 2024, Trump stepped through the mist of a fog machine into a roaring arena in New Hampshire, where, as in every early state, he holds a wide lead over GOP rivals," it added.

According to an aggregate from Real Clear Polling, Trump now holds a commanding lead in the Republican Party's primary race, with a 50-point advantage over his nearest rival.

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