Trump tops Biden in new Harvard Caps Harris poll

 April 22, 2023

A newly-released poll has former President Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup. 

The poll comes from Harvard Caps Harris. Between March 22 and March 23, the pollster surveyed 2,905 "registered voters."

Trump v. Republicans

Among the questions that the pollster asked Republican participants is, "if the Republican presidential primary for the 2024 election was held today, who would you vote for?"

Trump was easily the number one pick, receiving 50% of the vote. As usual, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was the second pick with 24%. And, then, third place went to former Vice President Mike Pence, who garnered 7% of the vote.

These results are in line with the results of several other 2024 Republican presidential primary polls. Trump tends to have a big lead on the Republican field and his closest rival is DeSantis, who isn't really that close.

Biden v. Democrats

Whereas Trump has a 26 percentage point lead over his closest Republican rival, Biden has a 30 percentage point advantage over the Democrats' number two candidate.

Biden, in the Harvard poll, managed to obtain 41% of the vote, whereas second place - 11% - went to Vice President Kamala Harris. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in third place with 7% of the vote.

But, unlike the Republican field, the Democratic field, after Biden, is much tighter.

Trump v. Biden

Since Biden is clearly leading the Democrats and Trump is clearly leading the Republicans, it is looking as though 2024 is going to be a rematch between Trump and Biden. And so, the pollster asked participants whom they would vote for in that matchup.

Here, Trump came out on top by four percentage points: 45% to 41%.

It is also worth pointing out that Trump would be favored to beat the Democrats' number two candidate - Harris - by 10 percentage points. And, DeSantis - the Republicans' number two candidate - would be expected to be Biden by three percentage points.

So, the bottom line is that, based on the results of this particular poll, things are not looking good for the Democrats in 2024.

The trend

There is no denying the fact that, recently, the polls - both the 2024 Republican presidential primary polls and the 2024 general election polls - have been trending in Trump's favor.

Real Clear Politics, in its poll aggregator, now has Trump leading DeSantis, on average, by 31 percentage points and leading Biden, on average by 1.3 percentage points.

Currently, neither Biden nor DeSantis has officially announced their 2024 campaigns. Both are expected to at some point - although polls like these must be discouraging.

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