Twelve members of Texas's congressional delegation elected in 2024 won't be back next year. Eleven are incumbents. One is deceased. That's nearly one-third of the Texas congressional delegation, the second largest in the country at 38 members, behind only California's 52.

The number may still grow depending on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

According to Just The News, the last time Texas saw anything comparable was eight years ago, when ten members elected in 2016 didn't run for reelection or lost in 2018. This time, the churn cuts deeper and spans both parties, driven by redistricting, retirements, scandal, primary defeats, and death.

Death, vacancy, and a crowded race in CD 18

Houston's former Democratic mayor, Sylvester Turner, won CD 18, the seat vacated by deceased U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. Turner was sworn into office in January 2025 and died two months later. The seat remained vacant until a special election was held last November.

Former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee won that seat in a crowded race. He then ran for reelection in the March primary and won more votes than Al Green, who is seeking reelection in CD 18 after serving for years in CD 9. Menefee and Green are now heading to a runoff.

Redistricting claims two Democrats

Democratic Reps. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth and Lloyd Doggett of Austin announced last year they weren't running for reelection because of redistricting. Their departures opened new districts and triggered competitive races.

Former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and incumbent U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson are both hoping to replace Veasey in a new CD 33 and will head to a runoff. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Greg Casar won his primary race in a new CD 37 to replace Doggett.

Redistricting is a routine part of the political cycle, but it has a way of revealing who actually belongs to a district and who was merely borrowing the seat.

Three incumbents reached for higher office

Three sitting members left their House seats to chase bigger prizes:

• Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, lost her primary race for U.S. Senate.
• Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, also lost his primary race for U.S. Senate.
• Chip Roy, R-Fredericksburg, is heading to a runoff for state attorney general.

President Trump has said he will soon make an endorsement in the U.S. Senate race. Meanwhile, Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn but has issued conflicting statements about dropping out. Texas's Senate contest remains fluid, and the downstream effects on the delegation could multiply.

Four Republicans retire

Four Republican House members announced they were retiring:

• Morgan Luttrell of Magnolia
• Jodey Arrington of Lubbock
• Troy Nehls of Richmond
• Michael McCaul of Austin

Voluntary retirements are the quietest part of the story but often the most consequential. Open seats attract primary battles, and primary battles shape the ideological direction of a delegation for years.

Two forced out after scandal

Then there are the departures that weren't voluntary in any meaningful sense.

U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales was forced to end his reelection bid by U.S. House leadership after he admitted to having an affair with a staffer who later killed herself. Gonzales denied the affair for months, falsely accused the woman's husband of bribing him, and when he finally dropped his reelection bid, issued no apology and expressed no remorse.

That record speaks for itself.

U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw was ousted by state Rep. Steve Toth, a grandfather and owner of a pool cleaning company. Crenshaw, who faced allegations of insider trading and support for red flag laws, continued to blame voters after his loss:

"A large part of this election was about the power of clickbait. Memes became truth. Too many people are not discerning through the clickbait."

When a sitting congressman loses to a pool cleaner and responds by calling the electorate gullible, the diagnosis is not with the voters. Toth won. Crenshaw didn't. The voters were discerning. They discerned they wanted someone else.

Texas has seen this movie before

The 2018 cycle offers the closest comparison. Former Republican incumbents John Culberson of Houston and Pete Sessions of Dallas lost their reelections that year. Former U.S. Rep. Robert "Beto" O'Rourke, D-El Paso, challenged U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and lost.

Six other incumbents didn't seek reelection in 2018: Gene Green, D-Houston; Jeb Hensarling, R-Dallas; Sam Johnson, R-Plano; Ted Poe, R-Atascocita; Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio; and Joe Barton, R-Fort Worth. Barton, who described himself as "a constant defender of conservative ideals and values," only announced he wasn't running after nude photos he took of himself, along with sexually explicit texts, were leaked. He acknowledged that he sent them to women with whom he was having extramarital affairs.

Blake Farenthold, R-Corpus Christi, resigned after it was reported that he used taxpayer money to settle a sexual harassment lawsuit and created a hostile work environment for female employees. He also claimed to be a conservative.

Self-described defenders of conservative values keep turning out to be defenders of their own appetites. The pattern isn't new, but it remains clarifying. Voters should be judged by how quickly they correct the mistake, not by the mistake itself.

What the shakeup means

Nearly a third of Texas's congressional delegation turning over in a single cycle is not normal political churn. It is a realignment happening in real time. Redistricting forced some exits. Scandal forced others. Ambition lured a few toward the Senate. And the primary process, the mechanism conservatives have always championed as the accountability tool closest to the people, worked exactly as designed in several of these races.

The question now is what fills the vacuum. Open seats in Texas attract talent, money, and national attention. The runoffs still pending will determine whether the new delegation moves further toward the populist-conservative base or drifts toward the kind of incumbents voters just finished removing.

Texas didn't just lose twelve members. It opened twelve doors. What walks through them matters more than what walked out.