Three Weeks Into Operation Epic Fury, U.S. Officials Say Iran's Military is in Freefall

By 
, March 22, 2026

Twenty-two days into combat operations against Iran, the United States has struck over 8,000 military targets, eliminated 130 Iranian naval vessels, and flown more than 8,000 combat sorties over Iranian skies. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth put it plainly at a Thursday press conference: "We're winning decisively and on our terms."

The campaign, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, launched at the end of February after President Trump announced that U.S. and Israeli forces had begun a joint attack against the regime in Tehran, an operation that quickly killed Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Three weeks later, top military officials describe an Iranian military establishment that is not just degraded but collapsing.

Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, delivered a Saturday morning update that framed the trajectory in stark terms:

"Their navy is not sailing, their tactical fighters are not flying, and they have lost the ability to launch missiles and drones at high rates seen at the beginning of the conflict. Our progress is obvious."

According to Just the News, the numbers back him up. Ballistic missile attacks against U.S. forces are down 90 percent since the start of the conflict. One-way attack drone launches have fallen by the same margin. Iran's eleven submarines are gone. Its surface fleet is, in Hegseth's words, "no longer a factor." Its military ports are crippled.

Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed, including from Iranian retaliatory attacks in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in the early days of the war, and an aircraft refueling incident over Iraq.

The Scope of Destruction

What distinguishes Epic Fury from prior U.S. engagements in the region is its relentlessness. This is not a limited strike package followed by diplomatic overtures. It is sustained, escalating pressure designed to eliminate Iran's capacity to project power beyond its borders.

Hegseth described the campaign's focus during Thursday's briefing:

"We're hunting and striking death and destruction from above. Iran's air defenses — flattened. Iran's defense industrial base, the factories, the production lines that feed their missile and drone programs — being overwhelmingly destroyed. We've hit hundreds of their defense industrial bases directly."

General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed that strikes are pushing deeper into Iranian territory with each passing day. A-10 Warthogs are now hunting fast attack watercraft in the Straits of Hormuz. AH-64 Apaches have joined the southern flank, with allied nations also flying Apache sorties against Iranian attack drones.

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Cooper added a detail that underscores the campaign's ambition:

"Just two days ago, the U.S. Army launched the longest field artillery strike in Army combat history, using precision strike missiles."

The strike targeted Iranian military infrastructure. Cooper called it a demonstration of "the U.S. military's unmatched reach and lethality."

The Strait of Hormuz Problem

One of the campaign's secondary objectives is dismantling Iran's decades-old stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. For years, Iran has used the threat of closing the Strait to leverage its position against the global economy. That leverage is evaporating.

Cooper described a strike earlier in the week in which U.S. forces dropped multiple 5,000-pound bombs on an underground facility along Iran's coastline:

"The Iranian regime used the hardened underground facility to discreetly store anti-ship cruise missiles, mobile missile launchers, and other equipment that presented a dangerous risk to international shipping."

The operation also destroyed intelligence support sites and missile radar relays Iran used to monitor ship movements. Cooper was direct about what comes next: "We will not stop pursuing these targets."

President Trump, for his part, made clear on Truth Social that guarding the Strait is not a permanent American obligation. Nations that rely on the passage should police it themselves. If asked, the U.S. will help, but Trump wrote that "it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated."

That framing matters. For decades, American foreign policy treated the defense of global shipping lanes as a standing commitment with no expiration date. Trump is treating it as a problem to be solved, not a mission to be sustained.

Iran's Lies About Its Missile Program

While the regime's conventional military disintegrates, the more dangerous question has always been its ballistic missile capabilities and nuclear ambitions. On that front, the evidence is damning.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed earlier in March that reports about Iran developing longer-range missiles were "misinformation," insisting that Iran had "intentionally limited" itself to missiles with a range below 2,000 kilometers, roughly 1,242 miles.

That claim aged poorly.

The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean roughly 2,500 miles from Iran. Neither missile struck the base, but the launch represented Iran's first operational use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles and a significant escalation beyond the Middle Eastern theater.

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As the Journal noted, Iran's targeting of Diego Garcia "implies its missiles have a greater range than Tehran has previously acknowledged." An Iran Watch report from January had already assessed that Iran could possess missiles with ranges up to 3,000 kilometers, or more than 1,800 miles, and potentially as far as 6,000 kilometers: more than 3,700 miles.

So Araghchi told the world Iran had voluntarily capped its missile range at 1,242 miles. Weeks later, Iran launched missiles at a target 2,500 miles away. This is the regime that a generation of Western diplomats trusted to honor nuclear agreements.

The IRGC's Leadership Crisis

Hegseth reserved particular emphasis for the campaign's impact on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary, noting that their leadership structure "has probably taken the hardest hit of all."

His description was characteristically blunt:

"The last job anyone in the world wants right now: senior leader for the IRGC or Basij — temp jobs, all of them. And to borrow a page from Admiral Ernest King in World War II, we've decided to share the ocean with Iran. We've given them the bottom half."

The IRGC is not a conventional military. It is the ideological enforcement arm of the regime, the organization that funds and directs proxy warfare across the region, trains militias, and oversees Iran's missile and nuclear programs. Gutting its leadership does not merely weaken a military branch. It severs the connective tissue between Tehran's ambitions and its ability to act on them.

Buying a Decade

K.T. McFarland, a former deputy national security adviser from Trump's first term, told Just the News on Friday that the regime is "now isolated in the region and militarily defanged." Her broader assessment captured the strategic picture:

"Iran is militarily finished. No air force. No navy. The senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guard gone."

McFarland framed the campaign's significance in terms of the nuclear timeline:

"I look at the bigger picture, the great news is that President Trump has bought us at least a decade of freedom from the nuclear threat from Iran. So even if he declared victory today, he could walk away and say … 'We don't have a nuclear threat. Their army, their navy, their air force, their missile production capabilities, we have set them back at least a decade to rebuild that.' So we bought peace for a decade."

A decade. That is the window created not by sanctions, not by summits, not by carefully worded UN resolutions, but by sustained military force applied with clear objectives.

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The Objectives Haven't Moved

Despite what Hegseth described as negative media framing, U.S. officials have been remarkably consistent about what Epic Fury is designed to accomplish. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Iran launched eleven missile barrages at Israel during a 24-hour period from Thursday into Friday, a tempo that suggests desperation, not strength. The regime is still shooting, but the volume tells the story. A ninety percent decline in both ballistic missile attacks and drone launches is not a stalemate.

Trump laid out five objectives in his Truth Social post on Friday:

  • Completely degrading Iranian missile capability, launchers, and everything pertaining to them
  • Destroying Iran's defense industrial base
  • Eliminating their navy and air force, including anti-aircraft weaponry
  • Never allowing Iran to get close to nuclear capability
  • Protecting Middle Eastern allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait

Hegseth echoed that clarity Thursday:

"Our objectives, given directly from our America-first president, remain exactly what they were on day one. These are not the media's objectives, not Iran's objectives, not new objectives. Our objectives, unchanged, on target and on plan."

Trump indicated Friday that the U.S. is "getting very close to meeting our objectives" and is considering winding down military efforts. Cooper's Saturday assessment described Iran's combat capability as being "on a steady decline as our offensive strikes ramp up."

The largest elimination of a navy over a three-week period since World War II. The longest field artillery strike in Army combat history. Air superiority over a sovereign nation's skies was maintained for over three weeks. A 90 percent reduction in enemy offensive capability.

Those are not talking points. Those are facts on the ground, in the water, and in the air over Iran. The press can frame it however it wants. The regime in Tehran knows exactly what is happening.

" A free people [claim] their rights, as derived from the laws of nature."
Thomas Jefferson