A federal judge ruled that Minnesota's lawsuit to compel Gov. Greg Abbott to hand over an ICE officer facing assault charges was premature, and now the agent could walk free from Texas custody as early as Thursday.

U.S. District Judge Fernando Rodriguez Jr. sided with Abbott on Wednesday, finding that the Republican governor had not actually denied Minnesota's extradition request for ICE officer Christian Castro. Abbott had instead directed the Texas secretary of state to investigate the demand and determine whether Castro should be surrendered, a step his legal team described as a routine exercise of the governor's authority under the Constitution's extradition framework.

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, a Democrat, sued Abbott last week, arguing that the governor's refusal to sign an extradition warrant was blocking the state from prosecuting Castro. The officer faces four counts of second-degree assault with a dangerous weapon and one count of falsely reporting a crime in connection with a January 14 shooting that left a man named Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis wounded in the thigh.

Judge Rodriguez dismantled Minnesota's core argument in plain terms.

"Minnesota cannot premise its causes of action on the allegation that Governor Abbott may violate those authorities in the future. It must prove that a violation has already occurred."

In other words, Ellison asked a court to punish Abbott for something he had not yet done. The governor had not denied the extradition request. He had referred it for investigation. Minnesota treated the delay as a denial and ran to federal court, and the judge said no.

Castro could be released Thursday under Texas law

The ruling carries immediate practical consequences. Under Texas law, Castro is scheduled for release on Thursday after spending 90 days in custody without being extradited. Minnesota warned the court that Castro could flee to Mexico if freed, citing phone conversations between the officer and a woman who lives there.

Rodriguez acknowledged that concern directly. He wrote that the court "agrees that Castro's flight to Mexico would impose a hardship on Minnesota's prosecutorial efforts." But he said that risk did not change the legal analysis. Minnesota still had to show it was likely to succeed on the merits of its claims, and it had not cleared that bar.

Abbott's attorneys pressed the point further in their own filing, arguing that Castro's release from custody would not prevent the governor from later issuing a warrant for his extradition. They accused Minnesota of trying to pressure Texas into rushing the process, and they framed the constitutional principle at stake in broad terms.

"The Constitution's extradition authority, together with the limits placed upon it, must apply evenhandedly, no matter who the putative defendant is or what he is alleged to have done."

That argument landed. The judge's ruling effectively told Minnesota to wait, either for Abbott to deny the extradition request outright, which would give the state legal standing to sue, or for the Texas investigation to run its course.

Ellison charged the ICE officer over a nonfatal shooting during a pursuit

Castro was arrested in Texas in May after Minnesota prosecutors filed charges tied to the January 14 incident. Castro allegedly shot Sosa-Celis in the thigh while pursuing another man. Federal authorities said both men Castro was pursuing were in the country illegally. The shooting was nonfatal.

Ellison's office charged Castro with four felony assault counts and one count of filing a false crime report. The charges landed against the backdrop of intensifying friction between blue-state prosecutors and federal immigration enforcement, a pattern that has played out in courtrooms and statehouses across the country. A recent Fifth Circuit ruling ending in-state tuition for illegal immigrants in Texas underscored how aggressively courts are now weighing in on immigration-related disputes between states and the federal government.

Minnesota framed the case as a straightforward criminal prosecution. Abbott's team framed it as an attempt by a Democratic attorney general to criminalize an ICE officer's conduct during an enforcement action, and to use the courts to override a governor's constitutional discretion over extradition.

Abbott's legal team called the lawsuit a pressure campaign

The Texas governor's attorneys did not hold back about what they believed Ellison was doing. They argued in court filings that the lawsuit should be dismissed entirely, calling it an effort to strong-arm Texas into bypassing its own review process. Abbott had asked the secretary of state to gather information about whether Castro should be surrendered, a step his team described as well within the governor's authority.

That framing matters beyond this single case. If a federal court had ordered Abbott to hand Castro over before the governor had even ruled on the extradition request, it would have set a precedent allowing any state attorney general to bypass another governor's review process by filing suit the moment a warrant was not signed on their preferred timeline.

Vice President JD Vance has separately referred Ellison and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to the Justice Department for a criminal fraud investigation, a move that reflects the broader political tension between the Trump administration and Minnesota's Democratic leadership.

Rodriguez's ruling did not resolve the underlying extradition question. Abbott can still sign the warrant, deny it, or continue the investigation. If he ultimately refuses, Minnesota would then have standing to return to court. But for now, the judge made clear that the Constitution does not allow a state to sue over a decision that has not been made.

The ruling also lands at a moment when the Trump administration has moved aggressively to assert federal legal authority on multiple fronts, from rejecting the International Criminal Court's jurisdiction over Americans to ramping up immigration enforcement nationwide.

Open questions remain as Castro's release looms

Several critical unknowns hang over the case. Abbott has not publicly stated whether he intends to sign or deny the extradition warrant. The Texas secretary of state's investigation has not produced a public finding. And if Castro walks out of custody Thursday, Minnesota has offered no plan beyond warning the court that he might leave the country.

The Trump administration's broader law enforcement posture suggests federal agencies are unlikely to help a Democratic attorney general pursue an ICE officer over conduct during an immigration enforcement action. Whether that dynamic shapes Abbott's final decision remains to be seen.

Ellison wanted a federal judge to do his work for him. The judge told him to come back when he actually has a case.