New Rasmussen poll has Trump up by 10 points over Biden

By 
 June 23, 2024

Many Democrats and media pundits predicted that former President Donald Trump's criminal conviction in New York would spell certain doom for his re-election campaign, but that hasn't been the case at all in terms of his polling and fundraising, which have proven the opposite.

Trump just scored another major win against his detractors with a new poll released this week that showed him leading President Joe Biden by 10 points in a race that included independent and third-party choices, Breitbart reported.

That polling boost coincides with recent media reports about how, thanks in large part to the public's reaction to Trump's guilty verdict in New York, his campaign has received a massive surge of donations from supporters that closed or even eclipsed the prior fundraising gap and advantage that Biden enjoyed and frequently bragged about.

Huge lead for Trump in new poll

On Thursday, Rasmussen Reports revealed that in a head-to-head matchup, former President Trump would prevail over President Biden among likely voters by a nine-point margin, 49-40%.

Interestingly enough, Trump's margin over Biden increased to 10 points, 46-36%, when other candidates were added to the mix, including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 9%, independent candidate Cornel West with 2%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 1%.

Trump averages a slim lead in national polls

To be sure, that Rasmussen poll is an outlier in comparison to other recent surveys, but the RealClearPolling average of national polls shows former President Trump ahead of President Biden by just shy of one point, 46.1-45.2%, in a head-to-head matchup.

And for what it is worth, RCP's tracker reveals that the anti-Trump prognosticators were not entirely wrong about the New York criminal conviction having a negative impact on the now-convicted felon's polling numbers, as they dropped precipitously immediately following the guilty verdict.

That said, Biden's polling numbers plummeted at the same time as well, essentially making the conviction's impact a wash, and the former president's support is now recovering faster than that of the incumbent.

Adding to the significance of the current polling situation is the fact that, according to RCP, Biden led Trump by 10.2 points on this same date in the 2020 election cycle, and in this cycle, Trump holds marginal to moderate leads in all of the most important swing states that typically decide presidential elections.

As for a five-way matchup that includes other candidates like Kennedy, West, and Stein, similar to Rasmussen's results, RCP showed that Trump's lead over Biden increased slightly to 2.2 points, 42.6-40.4%.

Trump closed the fundraising gap Biden enjoyed

Meanwhile, after enjoying a decided fundraising advantage since the campaign cycle began last year, Biden now finds himself equaled or surpassed by Trump in terms of donations received over the past two months, which has some Democratic donors and strategists feeling "depression" and "disappointment," according to Politico.

Trump and the Republican National Committee jointly raised far more cash during April and May than Biden and the Democratic National Committee did, in large part because of the overtly politicized New York criminal trial -- the Trump campaign received more than $50 million in the first 24 hours after the verdict was issued -- and Trump now has more cash-on-hand than Biden does.

"From fundraising, polling, crowds at public events or enthusiasm across the board with America’s voters, there is more and more evidence that the momentum of President Trump coming out of a historic primary election season is growing as we move to November," Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes told Politico. "The latest surge in fundraising and wiping out the campaign cash advantage in May reflects this."

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