David Axelrod suggests Trump 'may well' still win 2024 election despite Harris lead in national polls

By 
 August 20, 2024

Some media figures and political pundits have seemingly grown supremely confident over polling data that they suggest shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has already all but defeated former President Donald Trump more than two months ahead of November's election.

Yet, prominent Democratic strategist David Axelrod is not among them, and in fact, recently warned his fellow Democrats against being too overly confident because Trump "may well" still win if the election were held today, according to The Hill.

The former Obama adviser reminded everyone of what too many often seem to forget -- national polls are relatively meaningless other than measuring public sentiment and that elections are decided at the Electoral College, typically with the votes of just a handful of key battleground states.

The dangers of becoming "too euphoric" too early in a presidential race

During a Sunday segment on CNN to preview this week's Democratic National Convention in Chicago, according to Mediaite, host Anderson Cooper asked contributor Axelrod about the "danger" of Democratic voters "being kind of too euphoric" about VP Harris' positive standing in the polls after taking over for President Joe Biden as the party's presumptive nominee about a month ago.

"Yeah, I’ve been talking about this for some time," Axelrod replied. "Look, [Harris] has made extraordinary progress."

"When we were all in Milwaukee a month ago, and, you know, there was euphoria there and a sense that this race was over, that [Republicans] were going to win by a landslide, perhaps sweep in big majorities in the House and Senate," he continued in reference to the GOP convention. "And things have changed dramatically. But this is still a very competitive race."

Trump "may well" win the election in the Electoral College

"If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win," Axelrod said Sunday on CNN, per Mediaite. "And I think it may well be President Trump because it’s an Electoral College fight."

"And in those battleground states, and I’ve said several times here that, you know, for a Democrat to win those battleground states, they have to have a significant lead in the Electoral College," the strategist continued. "Remember, Joe Biden won by 7 million votes nationally, nationally last time, and a margin of 45,000 votes, or 44,000 votes in the three closest battleground states combined."

"So, she’s right to be telling people it’s good to be enthusiastic, that enthusiasm is really, really important for the Democratic Party," Axelrod added of Harris and her supporters. "But you have to turn that into energetic action in order to win the election. And I think that’s going to be part of what you hear here."

What do the polls really say?

According to RealClearPolling's average of national polls, VP Harris currently leads former President Trump in most of the individual polls and by 1.5 points with all of the polls combined.

To be sure, that is a substantial improvement over Trump's previous 3-point lead over President Biden when he dropped his re-election bid as well as the 1.6-point lead Trump initially enjoyed over Harris when she first took over as the presumptive nominee.

Yet, Harris' current lead is insignificant in comparison to the 7.4-point lead Biden held over Trump at the same point in the 2020 election cycle, which he barely managed to win, not to mention the 5.7-point lead failed 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton had at the same point in that cycle, which stunning evaporated once the ballots were cast and counted.

Furthermore, of those all-important battleground states mentioned by Axelrod that are often the key to victory in the Electoral College, Trump is ahead in five of the seven -- Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania -- while Harris leads in the other two, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If those results hold for the next two and a half months, Harris will likely be facing the end of her political career while Trump gets ready to move back into the White House for a second term in the Oval Office.

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