Former President Donald Trump is going to win the 2024 presidential election in a landslide. 

This claim, to the surprise of many, comes from the left-wing pollster Nate Silver. Some might know Silver as the founder of ABC News' poll aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, although he is no longer affiliated with either entity.

Silver provided his latest 2024 forecast on Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024. He did so on his blog, The Silver Bulletin. 

As for what has changed, it is a new poll from the New York Times and Sienna. It is a big deal because Silver considers this particular poll to be one of the most accurate.

The latest results

The Times poll has Trump leading Harris by one percentage point in a head-to-head matchup against Vice President Kamala Harris. And, it has Trump up two percentage points when other candidates are added into the mix.

As a result of this poll, Silver is now giving Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. That's compared to a 36% chance for Harris.

Silver is also currently predicting that Trump will win 312 votes from the Electoral College, as compared to only 226 for Harris. Silver, as these numbers suggest, is giving Trump just about all of the critical swing states.

To help provide some perspective, 312 Electoral College votes would be even more than he received in 2016, when he obtained 304 in his win against Hillary Clinton. And, it would be significantly more than the 227 that he got against President Joe Biden in 2020.

In short, if Silver is right, then Trump is heading toward a blowout victory.

Not all pollsters agree

Other pollsters have a different take on the 2024 election.

The Daily Mail reports:

RealClear's modelling shows the Vice President winning with 273 electoral college votes against Trump's 265 on a no-toss up map. No less than 270 votes are required to secure the White House. Project 538's latest forecast is completely at odds with Silver's and puts the electoral college vote at 281 for Harris, 257 Trump.

It perhaps is also interesting to note that, despite the fact that Silver has Trump with a big lead on Harris, he believes that Harris could very well still win the popular vote, even if she does get blown away in the Electoral College.

All of this, of course, has to be taken with a large grain of salt.

Pollsters get it wrong all of the time, and many believe that it might not be by accident.