The Biden Administration is ecstatic over a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon over the war against Hezbollah. Biden even dares to believe he can broker a broader peace in the region. But he and Democrats misread the moment: the ceasefire Israel has agreed to was achieved through their beheading of Hezbollah and the threat of Donald Trump on the horizon.

The ceasefire deal is between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah operates on Lebanon's borders and has fired thousands of rockets into Northern Israel. The Wall Street Journal reports, "The Hezbollah attacks made northern Israel nearly unlivable, forcing 60,000 Israelis to flee the area and killing scores of civilians. Since the attacks began, thousands of people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes, and large areas in southern Lebanon destroyed."

Some of Israel's best military victories have come in the last few months when they decimated Hezbollah from top to bottom. From sending explosive pagers and walkie-talkies to eradicating the entire leadership structure of the terrorist organization, Israel engaged in quick strikes to nullify the proxy arm of Iran. Hezbollah began attacking as soon as Hamas launched the October 7 attacks.

What Iran thought was a unified front with its support behind Hamas and Hezbollah is now a fractured and broken terrorist alliance. Israel has Hamas surrounded in Gaza. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is so crippled within Lebanon that it's giving up on supporting Hamas for the moment. Iran has experienced multiple strikes within its borders, some within the capital city.

In perhaps the most ironic of the strikes, Israel hit a top-secret nuclear research site in Parchan, Iran. The Biden administration had warned Israel away from striking Iran's nuclear sites. In response, Israel cleverly struck Parchan, which Iran had declared wasn't a nuclear site. However, everyone knew that Iran was engaged in nuclear activities there.

Iran can't admit this was a strike on its nuclear program, or else it would declare itself in violation of nuclear non-proliferation agreements. It was another moment where Israel was ahead of both the Biden administration and Iran. Israel crippled part of Iran's nuclear program, and neither the Biden administration nor the Iranians can say much about it.

The new ceasefire works in a similar manner. Hezbollah has been decimated in recent months. It isn't dead as an organization but limping around without much left. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "If Hezbollah launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack."

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board correctly notes, "The test of the ceasefire isn't whether Hezbollah is finished. It isn't. Unlike in Gaza, whose borders Israel could surround, Israel's objectives in Lebanon were limited. The test is whether Israelis return to their homes in the north."

Hezbollah made parts of Northern Israel unlivable. If those people can return to a normal life, Israel will have achieved real ends while being able to pivot back to triangulating Iran and Hamas. If Hezbollah tries to regroup in any way, Israel can respond. This deal is Hezbollah begging for mercy, letting Lebanon reassert some dominion over the area, and establishing order.

It's an open question over whether any of it lasts. But instead of fighting two fronts, Israel has managed to open and slam shut a second front against Hezbollah while balancing against Hamas. Iran and all of its proxies hold a deep fear of Donald Trump entering office, too. Biden wants credit for this, but everyone knows that Trump won't lift a finger to help Iran, Hezbollah, or Hamas, unlike the Biden administration.

Hezbollah caving is similar to how the Iran hostage crisis ended as Jimmy Carter was leaving office. The fear of Reagan led to hostages getting released while he was delivering his first inaugural address to the nation on January 20, 1981.

Trump is driving a similar fear into Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and more. In response, Israel is using this fear and the leverage it created by decimating Hezbollah to drive new terms in the region. In short, Donald Trump is not even in office, and the ramifications of the election are already being felt globally.

In a talk at Harvard, John Kerry even said positive words about Trump. He said that Trump's "unpredictability" was a "virtue" in global negotiations. He said, "[Trump] makes unpredictability a virtue, and it actually can be helpful," Kerry said to snickers at a Thursday night event at Harvard University's Institute of Politics. "Don't laugh," he added, throwing his hands out to quiet the audience. "It could be helpful in a negotiation for them to worry about you and not know where you're coming from."

We're witnessing that firsthand now. Israel is reaping the benefits, and peace is starting to appear. Whether or not it is a lasting peace remains to be seen, but it's a start.