House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has struggled to effectively govern the closely split chamber since winning the gavel last year, but that job -- if he even hangs on to it, which is no guarantee -- will likely become even more difficult next year.

The current slim Republican majority in the House will shrink even further at the start of the next term to just 219-215, leaving Johnson virtually no margin for error, Reuters reported.

Indeed, given the minimum requirement of 218 votes for a simple majority, the embattled speaker -- who will likely face challenges to his continued leadership -- will only be able to afford to lose a single absent member or defection and still hope to pass any legislation.

Johnson's "tenuous" hold on the speaker's gavel

The Reuters report noted that Speaker Johnson's "future hangs in the balance" amid this week's fight over a controversial spending bill to avoid a government shutdown that exposed just how "tenuous" his hold on the speakership truly is.

Johnson, who seemingly became the speaker by default in October 2023 after several other candidates tried and failed to be the successor to ousted ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), thought he had a bipartisan deal wrapped up that would extend government funding through March.

That bill was pulled before it ever received a vote, however, after it was sharply criticized by many Republicans, including President-elect Donald Trump, over its massive size and inclusion of numerous costly and unrelated provisions.

Yet, a scaled-down version offered up by Johnson failed to appease the critics and was decisively voted down, leaving the speaker to scramble at the last moment for a deal that could pass the chamber, be similarly acceptable to the Democrat-controlled Senate, and avoid the dreaded partial government shutdown that invariably would be blamed on the GOP.

Johnson likely to be challenged next year

Even if a government shutdown is avoided, according to The Independent, Speaker Johnson almost certainly "faces challengers" to his continued leadership when the new Congress begins early next month.

That is due in part to the "dumpster fire" initial spending bill he put forward but also because of the perception among some members that he has failed to keep the promises he made that garnered him the necessary support to win the speaker's gavel in the first place.

Unnamed sources have already floated the names of some potential challengers, including House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH), and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL).

However, Emmer has stated that he supports Johnson, Jordan has said he's "not interested" in challenging the speaker, and Donalds has given no indication that he would pursue the leadership position.

How Johnson can remain speaker

If Speaker Johnson is to continue in his current role, it will likely come down to whether or not he receives the full support and endorsement of President-elect Trump, who recently laid out in comments to Fox News what he believes Johnson must do to retain the speaker's gavel.

"If the speaker acts decisively, and tough, and gets rid of all of the traps being set by the Democrats, which will economically and, in other ways, destroy our country, he will easily remain speaker," Trump said of Johnson.

Johnson, at least publicly, seems unbothered by the emerging threats to his leadership, as ABC News reported that he told reporters this week, "I'm not worried about the speaker’s vote. We're governing. Everybody knows we have difficult circumstances. We're doing the very best we can under those circumstances. These are the hard choices that lawmakers have to make, but we will get the job done, as we always do. We will. We will keep moving forward, and in January, we have a new lease on all this."