Regarding Trump's economic policies, a key point to remember is this: instability is the point. More specifically, global instability is the point because it strengthens the U.S. dollar, giving the United States the power to steamroll over anyone in our path in any agreement. For a dealmaker like Trump, that's what he wants.

Recently, Jonah Goldberg criticized Trump's tariff policies by pointing to prices, specifically in the markets. Goldberg wrote, "If [Trump] ultimately ignores the message from the markets, and presses ahead with his disastrous trade policies, they will not work the way he wants them to. He might reverse course—he's done so umpteen times since he was inaugurated. But if he sticks with it, he will not say, 'Oh all the economists who said I was an idiot were right after all.'"

It's not uncommon to criticize Trump, and on its face, he's right about tariffs. They are taxes that raise prices and bring the United States into trade wars with other nations. Goldberg's point is simple: the price action we're seeing in markets is a sign that Trump is failing. 

This formulation has two problems. First, it incorrectly assumes that the prices we're seeing are accurate readings in a free market system. Second, if prices are falling domestically in the United States, this signals a problem only here.

Trump's policies may fail, but they won't fail for the reasons Goldberg points out. If Trump fails, it will be because he does not litigate the long-running trade war the United States has been in.

First, on the accuracy of prices. The modern United States does not exist in a free market where price determines reality. State actors heavily manipulate markets. You can see this by looking at things like the oil market, where OPEC has tried numerous times (with Russia's help!) to destroy U.S. oil and gas producers.

During the Obama years, because he hated the oil sector, he didn't mind OPEC trying to destroy something environmentalists hate. OPEC would drive prices artificially low to hamper private companies that lacked the stateprotection to preserve them.

The Middle East does that with one product. China took that lesson and multiplied it. China has targeted multiple U.S. industries to drive them out of business. A recent industry trying to fight back is our capacity to build ships. But China has stolen, undercut, and attacked U.S. technology, manufacturing, and more—all while trying to drive U.S. producers out of business—and for decades, they were successful. 

The prices involved here were not those of a free market. It's a manipulated market. However, the United States economy is so powerful that we've largely been able to shrug off these attacks while letting more minor ally countries leach off our wealth (see Europe, Mexico, and Canada). 

Trump's tariff rejoinder is simple: the economic attacks on America end now. 

The response from libertarian types is to point to a possible recession and more. And it's true—the United States could experience a recession. But if the United States experiences a recession, the world will enter something darker.

Here's why: tariffs will likely lead to a stronger dollar. As tariff instability increases, people need a safe haven to send money. The answer is the U.S. economy. The theory behind this is called the dollar milkshake theory, which points out the United States' unique position as the world's reserve currency.

In fact, it's probably best to think of Trump's policies as less of a trade war and more of a currency war. If he strengthens the dollar through instability, he will ironically cheapen the prices of goods we're importing. Driving tariffs against countries like China raises their prices and attacks a critical component of their economic warfare against the United States.

The critical thing to note here is that we've been in a trade war for a long time. China, OPEC, and others have tried to destroy various aspects of the American economy. Trump recognizes that reality and responds in kind while also using tariffs as a tool for negotiation. 

A slowdown in economic growth also hits inflation square in the face. The Federal Reserve needs slower growth to lower interest rates. Ultimately, Trump could get what he needs to curb inflation while targeting other countries in their trade wars with us.

Whether Trump is successful in these various goals is a different question. However, pointing to prices in a heavily manipulated market is a weak argument against him. If we existed in a truly free market, prices would be a perfect indicator of things.

We don't live in an ideal free market. We live in a global market where countries manipulate their economy for strategic edges. The American knowledge problem is that we've largely denied this reality for decades. 

That is no longer the case. Trump's job is to prosecutor the economic side of this on behalf of America while preserving our companies, economy, and people from those attempting to tear at the threads of what makes us great. 

Central to that end goal is breaking countries like China and crippling their capacity to hold us hostage in various aspects of our domestic economy. China cannot be allowed to dictate the ships we build, the technology we create, or the inventions we make. The United States just started to fight on this front. There's a long way to go.