Vladimir Putin has accepted in principle that a ceasefire is needed in Ukraine. The decision comes as Trump flipped the script, getting Ukraine on board while pulling strings at Russia's economy. It turns out that putting the screws to Russia in ways that matter can drive it to the bargaining table.

Since the start of the war in February 2022, Russia has made nearly $1 trillion in oil exports alone. Russia also relied heavily on its "shadow" fleet of oil tankers, which changed flags and markings to avoid sanctions.

For all its talk of supporting Ukraine, imports of Russian oil, gas, and other energy products surpassed any aid the Europeans sent to Ukraine. In the third year of the war, Europe sent $18.7 billion to Ukraine in aid while sending nearly $22 billion to Russia in oil and gas payments. Europe showed only a 1% reduction in Russian imports year over year.

Europe is funding both sides of the war. And for all its bluster at Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and America for calling it to the carpet on defense spending, nothing appears to be changing in Europe. We get fancy speeches, hashtag campaigns, and snooty social media posts but little else.

Ten days before leaving office, Biden signed a much harsher set of sanctions against Russia. Given that the Biden White House was working with Trump on everything else, it's inconceivable they didn't work with him on these orders either.

One of those rules went into effect this week, at 12:01 am Eastern March 2025. After three years of little movement, the U.S. Government is finally hitting Russia where it hurts: oil and gas production.

The Treasury explicitly targeted Russia's oil production and exports and also set out to destroy Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers. In total, this is set to severely hamper Russia's national GDP and impact its national budget, which has at times relied as much as 50% on oil profits to get by.

Combined with those policies is Trump's push to lower oil prices. Oil prices are sitting at multi-year lows, which is putting Russia in a bind. It's not making as much from its cash cow, either. Russia has threatened to cut production in an attempt to push up prices, but Trump's friendship with Saudis combined with American exports is preventing Russia from having as much impact.

In short, right at the moment when Russia's primary export and the way it funds itself are getting chopped down at the knees, Russian oil and gas companies are suffering, relying on layoffs, cost cuts, and other measures to stay profitable.

It's at this moment, when Trump got Ukraine on his side that Russia is suddenly willing to talk about a ceasefire. Putin cannot survive low oil prices, less production, and sanctions hitting his shadow fleet simultaneously. Russia will collapse without its oil economy, and this is the tactic we should have taken years ago.

Biden infamously blasted Ukraine and Zelenskyy for attacking Russian oil depots. He threatened them from using their best tactic against the Russians, which in turn has prolonged this war. Had Ukraine been able to attack those oil depots and pipelines earlier, and Biden shut Russia off from Europe, perhaps this war settlement would look different.

However, the Biden White House's unofficial stance was to prolong the war to drain Russia's military. The United States supported Ukraine enough to keep them in it but never enough to give them a decisive edge. Every time Ukraine landed something significant in the war, Biden made sure that advantage was lost over time.

That brings us to the current ceasefire. There's no guarantee Trump's ploy will work. However, he has created leverage where far less of it existed. Russia is feeling the heat on oil prices, and by getting Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, Russia now has to explain why it wants to continue the war instead of ending it.

Trump will be judged according to the deal he gets in this situation. If he can get a good deal signed that ends the conflict while securing American interests and Ukrainian freedom, it will likely be good. Not everyone will end up happy with the parameters, but we were not headed for a situation where Ukraine resisted, and Putin was magically overthrown.

This conflict was always headed for a negotiated end, the only question was who would push to end it. Because the United States is funding Ukraine, it is upon us to ensure an end to and reduce escalation between nuclear powers.

Where this eventually heads is to be see, but Trump managed to get leverage where little of it existed. He should not be afraid of flexing American power further to ensure the security of American interests and Ukraine.