It's cards on the table time for Donald Trump and tariffs. Everything up until now has been an appetizer. Global markets are reeling, and the major question is whether Trump's policies are an endpoint to themselves or leverage to drive a deal. Whatever the case may be, we'll find out starting this week.

According to the White House, Trump isn't trying to purposely crash markets. They had to say this because the president reposted a video on TruthSocial claiming he was trying to purposely crash markets by 20% to drive investors into U.S. Treasuries.

The problem is that the economic outlook has shifted from growth to recession. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now tool estimates that first-quarter growth this year was -2.8%. Economists at many of the top banks see the same thing.

While many factors are at play, the drag tariffs introduce to the economy is at the top of the list—primarily because it's a self-induced issue. Trump's initial list of tariffs against select countries like Mexico, Canada, and China wasn't enough to push these forecasts into recession.

But across-the-board tariffs against everyone will do that. That's the scenario we're in now. So the question is this: Is Trump pursuing tariffs to generate tax revenue, or is this a negotiating tactic?

During his first term, with the exception of China, the answer was mainly a negotiation tactic. Even the early tariffs to kick off his second term were aimed at negotiating border support with Canada and Mexico.

Is Trump trying to pull off negotiations with every country on earth with his current list of tariffs? The White House claims more than 50 countries are knocking on the door to negotiate new terms with the United States. There are enough press releases from countries seeking just this, so I'm assuming there's truth to this claim.

If Trump uses this to zero out tariffs on other countries against the United States, there's a silver lining that markets reeling from the new announcements can latch onto for support. It's not a difficult negotiation, either: you're agreeing to quickly lower all tariffs against each other—essentially free trade.

But if Trump keeps the tariffs just to keep them, as some White House advisors say, then we are looking at a recession. The drag that the tariffs will induce on global growth will trigger market meltdowns, job losses, and negative growth. That's not beneficial to anyone.

However, it is possible to use these tariffs as temporary leverage to negotiate terms with other countries. Canada is feeling that stress right now. In March, the United States had a huge monthly jobs report for March, with 228,000 people getting added to jobs - far exceeding expectations.

Canada is already experiencing job losses, with 33,000 jobs lost and the unemployment rate rising to 6.7%. For comparison, the United States unemployment rate sits at 4.2%. Canada cannot afford a trade war with the United States. We may have slower growth, but they're already actively shrinking economically. It will only get worse for them from here.

China isn't in a much better spot, and their odds of getting tariff relief are much worse. Trump views them - correctly - as a national security threat to the United States. China's markets are already tanking, which is putting more stress on a faltering Chinese economy. Their real estate sector has blown up, effectively eradicating most people's primary source of wealth.

The big question starting this week is simple: will Trump take wins and quick negotiations with most countries that will zero out tariffs against the United States? If so, we'll see a quick rebound in equity markets with everyone settling down.

If not, the financial pain will ratchet up quickly. While Trump believes the country could use some "no pain, no gain" mentality here, Americans won't settle for it. Continuing this path will rapidly close off Trump's ability to negotiate anything new in Congress.

If he wants to pass those tax cuts and anything else, he'll need the help of a Congress that isn't terrified they'll all lose their seats because of his tariffs. It may be a while before the midterms, but it's not forever.

America does have all the leverage in these negotiations with other countries. But we've hit the point where it's one thing to talk about that leverage and another to use it. If Trump just wants tariffs for tariffs' sake, we'll get a recession. If he's leveraging America's economic might to drive through a litany of trade deals with other countries, we could emerge better than before.

It's anyone's guess. But the cards are on the table starting this week. Markets won't accept anything less; everyone else is showing their cards now.