House GOP majority margin increases following series of deaths of House Democrat members

By 
 May 22, 2025

House Republicans began the current congressional term with an exceedingly slim majority and nearly nonexistent margin or error that made it exceptionally difficult to pass legislation unless all but two members were fully on board.

That margin just grew slightly larger for the GOP following the death this week of Rep. Gerry Connelly (D-VA), 75, who succumbed to esophageal cancer on Wednesday, Business Insider reported.

Connelly is the third sitting House Democrat to pass away this term, and all of the past eight deaths of sitting members of Congress were Democrats, which has prompted some legitimate questions about the Democratic Party's apparent problem with elderly and unhealthy members passing away in office.

House Democrats' deaths have boosted the House GOP majority

The New York Post reported that when the current congressional term began in January, the House GOP held a 220-215 seat margin over Democrats, which, with a majority threshold of 218, meant in practical terms that Republicans could only afford to lose two members and still hope to pass any legislation.

After the death of Rep. Connelly, however, which was preceded in March by the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX), 70, which was followed about one week later by the death of Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), 77, the seat margin has changed to 220-212 and the GOP can now tolerate losing up to three members and still be able to pass bills.

That has caused some Democrats to take a hard look at some of their older members with known health issues who appear to be clinging to power and seniority until their dying breath instead of making way for younger and healthier politicians to replace them.

An unnamed Democratic congressional staffer told the Post, "It is possible to both mourn the deaths of recently passed Democratic members of Congress and acknowledge that there is a fundamentally broken incentive structure in the party when it comes to aging."

"We cannot say that democracy is on the line and then risk control of Congress (or the presidency for that matter) on the fragile medical status of those who the average person on the street would not trust as their Uber driver," the staffer added. "Let’s get serious."

House GOP passes Trump policy bill thanks to altered majority margin

According to HuffPost, House Republicans immediately took advantage of the additional breathing room gained by Rep. Connelly's death to successfully pass the so-called "One Big, Beautiful Bill" that would codify numerous aspects of President Donald Trump's policy agenda.

Indeed, because of the altered margin for a majority, the legislation passed with a 215-214 vote, in which two Republicans joined all 212 Democrats to vote against the bill while one Republican voted "present" and two other GOPers didn't cast a vote at all -- though those two non-voters insisted they would have voted "yes" if they'd been there.

The situation prompted a bitter retort from Amanda Litman, the president of the progressive candidate recruitment organization known as Run For Something, who said, "Rep. Connolly was a good guy, a good leader, and a committed public servant," but added, "It’s so deeply sad on many levels that his final months of life were spent fighting to hold on to power."

Older and unhealthy members of Congress should step aside for younger and healthier replacements

Newsweek reported that the Center for Politics in Virginia's director and founder, Larry Sabato, praised Connelly as an individual and noted that his death represented "a significant loss for the party and Congress. Every vote counts in this closely divided Congress. The three Democratic deaths mean Republicans have an easier time passing Trump's agenda. Easier, not easy."

"The image of the Democrats today is geriatric. Their backing from the youngest voters weakened in 2024," he added. "The party needs not just to recruit younger candidates. Democrats must push them to the front, to the TV cameras, to lead the charge."

That was echoed by the University of New Haven's resident political scientist, Patricia Crouse, who said, "I think an aging Congress is an issue for both parties. The underlying issue is that incumbents are reelected at a rate of 95-98 percent. I am not sure that is more of a problem with the parties or the American electorate, but as long as that continues, Congress will continue to age."

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