There are a million hot takes floating on the internet on what the 2025 elections mean and what each party needs to do in response. Most of these ideas are driven by the writer's particular assumptions: everyone wants to say, "My hobby horse is what will have us win." There's a far easier way: ask the voters.

To that end, voters in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City were clear about what was animating them. It wasn't Trump, it wasn't the "No Kings" protests, or democracy, or wars, or anything of that sort. It was, as most elections are, decided by the economy.

It's the economy, stupid.

And it's not just the economy; it is how the economy is impacting a given person in their area of the world. No matter what party you're in, you have to hit those specific concerns to be taken seriously. It was true in 2024, when Trump talked about prices and inflation, and Harris spoke about democracy. One man discussed what voters were talking about, while she kept hammering home the Democratic base.

Let's take a look at the voters' voices. Here are some examples: "In Virginia, nearly half (48 percent) of voters highlighted the economy as the biggest issue facing the state, and they broke for Democrat Abigail Spanberger over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by an overwhelming margin (63 to 37). A smaller share pointed to the economy alone as the top issue in New Jersey, but those who did supported Democrat Mikie Sherrill over Republican Jack Ciattarelli by an even wider margin (65 to 35)."

In another question, "Nearly 60 percent of voters in Virginia said that the federal government's cuts had affected their family's finances." This makes sense given how many federal workers live in Virginia.

In the Associated Press's exit polls, 68% of voters named taxes or the economy as their number one issue. Healthcare was third at 16%. If you add healthcare to our economic one —which is fair because it is a cost question —you get an astronomical figure: 74% of voters walking into the booth thinking about something hitting their pocketbook.

There was a similar story in Virginia. In New York City, the top issue for 56% of voters was the cost of living. After that, it was crime at 22%.

These are not complex, esoteric concepts. Americans are looking around and asking a fundamental question: Can I live affordably where I am, and if not, why not? In New York, they have a safety concern as well. Again, this isn't shocking news.

For all the talk of socialism, Trump, conservatism, and more, these elections are being decided on bread-and-butter topics. Politicians like talking about kitchen-table issues, but that's really it, and Americans are still experiencing the effects of inflation.

Americans are not morons. Inflation raged for years under Biden, and he refused to lift a finger. There's a reason the Democratic Party has approval ratings lower than any other group in recent history. Americans know full well Democrats fiddled while Rome burned.

They awarded things to Trump in overwhelming fashion in 2024. The question is: how is he governing now? It's not shocking to see fire thrown back at him because—and this is the critical part—inflation has not been solved.

I'll state that again for the people in the back: Inflation is not solved.

Trump's critics want to say this is all about tariffs. It's not. Increased tariffs do increase prices on both sides of the equation, but it's a one-time thing. Tariff hits would be something Americans would see once, and then not again. That's not the problem.

When Biden left office, inflation was still rising above the Federal Reserve's target. It's still increasing above those levels, and you can see that if you strip out all the tariff noise.

The primary drivers of inflation remain unresolved. And while this is happening, the Federal Reserve is starting to lower interest rates, with a hot stock market roaring in the background, and shrinking employment. It's the worst parts of the Nixon-era 1970s, without the good music to go along with them.

In truth, what we needed —and what I thought Trump would try at the beginning of his presidency — was a coordinated recession. He could work with the Fed to push rates a little higher, crush inflation, and then push pro-growth policies, and the Fed would cut rates.

Instead, we're getting the lower rates with none of the inflation relief. We're running the economy hotter than usual in a bid to try and outgrow inflation itself. That's not working so far, and the election results bear that out.

If these same middling results come in for economic growth from now until next year at this time, I can tell what those midterm maps are going to look like for Republicans. It won't be pretty for Republicans, no matter what the newly redistricted maps look like.

Voters have screamed at both parties for four years now to do something about inflation. No one has rolled out a solution. Democrats are still being punished for that in approval numbers, and now that ire is shifting to Trump and Republicans.

'll end on one crucial observation: I expect inflation to tick up in 2026 if nothing changes. The White House is burning daylight.