DANIEL VAUGHAN: We Can Predict Future Weather - And People Reject That
In the aftermath of a significant storm outbreak, particularly with a high loss of life, there's always a question of whether it was forecast correctly. We hold the National Weather Service to an impossibly high standard: they have to effectively forecast the future of weather to warn people. With the tornado outbreak this past weekend, they did that and need more support.
More than a week out, the Storm Prediction Center started circling March 14-16 as a possible outbreak for tornados, hail, and strong storms. They also started highlighting intense wildfire risks for the areas involved. Storm chasers caught on and started hyping up the event, making plans to intercept the system as it moved into the United States and marched east.
Having sat in the middle of two days of a storm system and talked with those who lived through the third day, I'd call the Storm Prediction Center's forecasts verified. The storm chasers may be disappointed they didn't get the views of tornados they wanted. Still, the output of this system was undeniable.
Storm reports from March 14-16 show 86 tornado reports, 1,018 wind damage reports, and 358 hail reports. Early reports show that this storm was responsible for at least two EF-4 tornados, with wind speeds topping an astonishing 190 mph—just shy of registering as an EF-5 tornado.
One woman found a hailstone that was nearly a foot long in her yard. Other people saw hail pour out of the sky like heavy rain, wrecking everything it touched.
Out west, the backside of this storm whipped up a massive dust storm that blanketed West Texas, the Panhandle of Oklahoma, and Kansas. Airline passengers couldn't see the ground below them because it was blanketed in thick clouds of red dust. And eight people were killed in a brutal 71-vehicle crash on I-70.
At the time I'm writing this, the death toll from this storm system is at least 36, with search and rescue underway across multiple states. States of emergency are declared everywhere, with billions in property damage occurring.
In short, the forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center were verified. If anything, we were fortunate that it wasn't worse as a country. Some places that had bad forecasts didn't experience the full brunt of the fury in this system. I was, thankfully, one of those people. But you don't have to go far to find people seriously impacted.
What is becoming painfully clear about these storms is that we're getting extremely good at predicting the severity possibilities of major storm systems in advance. It's not just tornados. The National Hurricane Center is getting highly accurate at predicting the landing spots of major hurricanes before they're more than a twinkle in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
We can predict the future, so to speak, for the weather. All the jokes about inaccurate meteorologists are funny for a past era, but they don't depict the world we live in now. Statistically speaking, weather prediction is highly accurate and getting better every year.
What's not improving is our response. Meteorologists like James Spann in Alabama get attacked for "hyping" up events like the one that just hit. People do not take these storm events seriously because they were not personally impacted. Yet, you look around, and you see entire towns wiped out, families destroyed, and lives lost. Spann put those trolls in their place, but it's swatting one gnat among thousands.
Weather forecasting is improving, but human nature and extreme self-centeredness remain. During day-of-weather events, we project the paths of storms and give people hours to respond if necessary. It's true that's not always possible, but in many cases, it is. And even with hours of warning, people disregard the obvious thing headed towards them.
As a country, we push alerts to people's cell phones. They also have weather alerts on apps, television, radio, YouTube, and podcasts. Meteorologists, storm chasers, weather enthusiasts, and the well-informed share weather alerts across all forms of social media. The only thing we're not sending is smoke signals.
At the outset of the Enlightenment, education was believed to be the answer to everything. If only people were educated and given more knowledge, they'd choose to do the right thing. And it's certainly true; you can get more informed people in the process of that.
But there are also extremely educated people who die in these weather systems and go about their lives as if nothing is happening. There are people with "low" educations who have lived through storms and understand how to prepare for them.
Education isn't the problem. We live in a self-absorbed society where people lie to themselves, saying, "That happens to other people, but not to me." Proverbs teaches that it rains on the just and unjust. Far too many Americans believe it'll never rain on them.
This past weekend shows that the storm eventually comes, and there are always advance warnings. You can no longer say, "I didn't know." It's impossible not to know.
If you're looking to give to relief efforts, consider: The Y'All Squad, Cajun Navy Relief, or The Salvation Army.