In statistically tied race, Kennedy's endorsement of Trump shifts one-fifth of voters toward GOP nominee

By 
 August 31, 2024

One of the big questions surrounding Robert F. Kennedy Jr's decision to suspend his independent campaign and endorse former President Donald Trump is what kind of impact that move would have on voters, particularly independent voters who lack strong ties to either major party.

While it may still be too soon to measure the full effect, one early poll indicates that around one-fifth of likely voters now think more favorably of Trump after Kennedy's endorsement while a majority remain unmoved, according to The Hill.

Interestingly enough, the polling also seems to suggest that the addition of Kennedy to Trump's campaign team will be more impactful on voters than the former president's selection for running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH).

Kennedy suspends campaign, endorses Trump

According to the Arizona State Press, Kennedy announced on Aug. 23 that he was partially suspending his campaign in several critical battleground states and endorsing former President Trump as part of a speech in which the former Democratic scion, who abandoned his famous family's party last year, excoriated the Democratic Party for their many failings and opposition to his candidacy.

Following that speech, Kennedy then appeared at a Trump rally in Glendale, Arizona, where he received a warm welcome and resounding applause from a crowd brimming with "electric energy and enthusiasm" in an arena "filled with love in the air," according to ASU College Republicans President Carson Carpenter, who attended the event.

"Having that unifier of RFK Jr. coming in on the ticket with President Trump will just show that he's going to have an administration that's willing to hear from both sides, but also working effectively to help the American people," Carpenter said and further predicted that Kennedy's move would have a significant effect on the race, particularly with independent voters.

Measuring the initial impact of Kennedy's endorsement

Beginning on the same day as Kennedy's big announcement, from Aug. 23 through Aug. 27, the pollsters at Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,611 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.4 points, to gauge the current state of the presidential race.

The top line of the poll found that Republican former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, were effectively in a statistical tie with Harris holding a marginal 1-point lead in a head-to-head matchup and a 2-point lead with third-party candidates added into the mix.

Polling analyst Tim Malloy said, "Conventions done, debates in the planning, rhetoric getting rougher, there's a slight numerical difference, but it is essentially a tie as the presidential race roars toward November 5th."

As for the measured impact of Kennedy's endorsement of Trump, the pollsters found that around 19% of likely voters now think more favorably of Trump while 15% had a less favorable opinion and approximately 64% were unchanged in their views of the GOP nominee.

Quinnipiac's Malloy seemed to downplay the impact of Kennedy's Trump endorsement and said, "RFK Jr. -- his own presidential prospects in a nosedive -- bounces to Donald Trump's camp. But is he an asset or a liability? Independents, so critical to the outcome of the race, aren't exactly swayed by him to change their views about Trump."

Positive signs for Trump among certain demographic groups

Perhaps Kennedy's endorsement didn't sway a majority of independent voters, but considering that Quinnipiac otherwise shows Trump and Harris tied at 45% among that cohort, even a small shift of those crucial voters to Trump's side could prove decisive in a statistically tied race.

Furthermore, the poll featured some positive signs for Trump among other demographic groups, including garnering 58% support among men, 63% among white working-class voters without a college degree, and a somewhat surprising 20% among black voters and 48% among Hispanic voters.

Meanwhile, according to RealClearPolling's national average, Harris has around a 2-point lead over Trump in both a head-to-head matchup and in a multi-candidate race, -- though the question remains of where Kennedy's 4.5% support will go -- and the two major candidates are essentially tied or within the margins in nearly all of the critical battleground states.

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