Nate Silver: Harris missed 'big opportunity' by picking Walz instead of Shapiro

By 
 September 11, 2024

Pollster Nate Silver said in his "Silver Bulletin" newsletter on Sunday that Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris made a mistake in choosing far left Minnesota Governor Tim Walz for her running mate instead of more moderate Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

Harris “blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of [Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D)] rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything,” Silver wrote on his website.

Walz is seen as helpful in attracting Midwesterners and the middle class, but moderates are wary of him and he's unlikely to attract many independents either.

Harris could use a swing back toward the center--almost half of voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found her "too liberal/progressive."

"2019 mode"

Silver attributed Harris's choice of Walz to "a counterproductive tendency to risk aversion."

“I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, she reverted to 2019 mode,” he wrote.

She has flip-flopped on fracking and "Medicare for All," among others, or at least says she has.

There's no reason to believe she wouldn't support these policies and other progressive priorities, though.

"Being pragmatic"

Fellow progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) believes Harris is "being pragmatic" in order to win the election.

He said the quiet part out loud on NBC News, which normally Democrats don't do.

It would explain why she suddenly turned her back on everything she had seemed to believe previously, however.

Silver thinks it's possible that Harris will win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College like the last woman to run for office--Hillary Clinton--did in 2016.

No immediate bump for Harris

Silver's latest predictions come after the debate, which a majority thinks Harris won.

So far, he sees a bump for Harris in Wisconsin, but little movement elsewhere.

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