Many election analysts and political operatives are sure that Pennsylvania will be the state to win for either presidential candidate, as it all but guarantees an Electoral College path to the White House. 

According to Fox News, among other signals that former President Donald Trump is surging in the Keystone State, one major indicator is the number of formerly registered Democrat voters in the state who have changed their party affiliation.

Tens of thousands of Pennsylvania Democrats switched their party registration to Republican for the upcoming election, suggesting that Trump has an increasingly high chance of pulling off a victory in the key battleground state.

Both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have spent significant time on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania.

What's going on?

Fox News reported that Democratic voters are changing their party affiliation in Pennsylvania at more than twice the rate that Republican voters are.

The bombshell data, provided by the state, was made available this week after early voting was formally closed.

Registered Democrats still have the upper-hand as far as total numbers are concerned, but not by much, and there are plenty of other factors that mean Republicans could have a strong advantage in PA this year.

Fox News noted:

A total of 9,088,583 registered voters were tallied across the state when the sign-up period ended at midnight on Monday. Registered Democrats maintained a lead over registered Republicans at 3,971,607 registered Democrats to the GOP’s 3,673,783.

Additionally, some 1.4 million voters in Pennsylvania are registered as independent or third-party voters. In what could be a close race for the victory, those votes will absolutely matter.

That's not to mention the number of people who made the effort to switch from Democrat to Republican. They did that for a reason and are likely to vote as a result.

The math

Though Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, those numbers might not even matter if one looks at the 2020 election, which Biden won by only 1.17 percentage points.

Fox News explained:

President Biden won the state in 2020 by 1.17 percentage points​. That year, Democrats had a larger margin of registered voters compared to their Republican counterparts, at 4.2 million to 3.5 million. The data show that Democrats had a registration advantage over Republicans by 685,818 voters during an election Biden won by 80,555 votes.

Trump's momentum in Pennsylvania, especially in the wake of the failed assassination attempt in Butler, has undoubtedly grown stronger.

Only time will tell who wins the crucial swing state, but it looks like Trump's chances have risen significantly.