Trump appears poised for victory in Nevada, a state that has consistently voted for Democrats since 2008

 May 25, 2024

President Joe Biden's re-election campaign is struggling and he is increasingly facing the prospect of losing a rematch in November against former President Donald Trump.

Nowhere is that grim diagnosis of Biden's diminishing chances at a second term in the White House more stark than in Nevada, a state that has consistently supported Democratic candidates since 2008 but appears poised to shift over to the Republican column this year, Newsweek reported.

To be sure, though former President Barack Obama won the Silver State resoundingly by more than 12 and six points in 2008 and 2012, respectively, the margins have tightened up substantially since then, with Hillary Clinton prevailing by just 2.4 points in 2016 and Biden taking the state by the same spread in 2020.

Trump leading most of the polls in Nevada

Nevada is reportedly a difficult state to survey with high margins of error, but Newsweek pointed to several recent small polls that showed former President Trump either tied with or leading President Biden by as much as nine points.

Of course, the election is still several months away and a lot can change between now and November, and a statement to the outlet from a Nevada Democratic Party spokesperson expressed confidence that the state would remain firmly in the blue column come Election Day.

Yet, according to RealClearPolling's average of polls for Nevada, Trump is holding steady with a 5.3 point lead over Biden, and the incumbent president is not ahead in any of the several polls that are included in that equation.

Nationally, RCP shows Trump with a 1.1 point average lead over Biden, but that doesn't really express the deep trouble the Biden campaign is facing, as that slim margin doesn't account for the fact that Trump has much larger leads in virtually all of the key battleground states where elections are truly decided via the Electoral College.

Poor economic numbers for Biden likely a major factor

Newsweek is not alone in sounding the alarm for President Biden in Nevada, as The Washington Post reported just last week that the Silver State "could be slipping from Biden's grasp" following "years of Democratic dominance."

The Post also pointed to several polls that showed former President Trump ahead of Biden but dug a little deeper to find out why that was the case in this particular election cycle.

What the outlet surprisingly found is that Trump is leading Biden among young voters and Hispanic voters -- two key voting blocs that Democrats often rely upon for victory.

Aside from the polls, The Post further noted that Nevada suffers from high unemployment, high inflation, high housing costs, and stagnant wages, all of which contribute to real-world economic pain for voters, many of whom recall and now pine for the pre-pandemic booming economy that was in place during Trump's tenure in office.

Biden trailing despite strong push in state with ads and visits

The Post observed that former President Trump's lead over President Biden in Nevada is all the more alarming for Democrats when one considers that Trump and his allies have not yet spent any money in the state on advertising while the Biden campaign and its affiliated PACs have already dropped $3 million to blanket the state with pro-Biden and anti-Trump political ads.

Trump made a few visits to the state ahead of February's primary caucuses, which he won overwhelmingly, but Biden has also visited Nevada twice this year while Vice President Kamala Harris has made four visits so far. In fact, highlighting the electoral and fundraising importance of the state, Harris has already made 15 trips there since taking office in 2021.

As noted previously, things can change between now and Election Day and the possibility that Biden could rally his support and ultimately prevail in Nevada can't be ruled out, but as things stand now, Trump will be the victor once all of the ballots are cast and counted, and a loss in that formerly solid blue state won't bode well for Biden's outlook more broadly across the nation.

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