Multiple factors suggest VP Harris could easily lose election to Trump

By 
 August 14, 2024

Democrats and their media allies have been nearly euphoric over their assumptions that Vice President Kamala Harris, who took over for President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee last month, is all but a lock to win the election in November.

However, an analysis of economic and polling data, not to mention policies and historical trends, suggests that Harris could still lose the impending election to former President Donald Trump, according to the Financial Times.

Indeed, many Americans still feel inflationary economic pain, Harris' polling leads are marginal at best, and her policies are either non-existent or the same as Biden's, which tended to be rather unpopular with voters.

Harris barely leads in the polls

According to RealClearPolling's average of national polls, VP Harris currently leads former President Trump by 0.9 points, which appears to be a stark change in favor of Democrats given that Trump led President Biden by around three points when the elderly incumbent dropped out of the race a few weeks ago.

However, as FT observed, that lead for Harris is within the margin of error and is far short of the lead failed 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton had at this same point, or even the lead Biden had in 2020, which was reduced by more than half by Election Day.

Further, RCP shows that Trump still holds the lead in five of the seven decisive battleground states, most Americans think the nation is currently on the "wrong track" under the Biden-Harris administration, and both Biden and Harris are underwater in terms of their job approval ratings.

The economy is not good for Harris

Then there is the economy, which has made modest improvements since the lows of the 2020 pandemic but still appears to be on the verge of a recession that has been kept at bay almost exclusively by debt-driven consumer spending, per MarketWatch.

On top of that, price inflation remains a real problem that voters face every time they gas up their vehicles or go to the grocery store, jobless claims are rising, and economic growth appears to be slowing.

None of that is good for VP Harris, who try as she might will be incapable of distancing herself from her own administration's policies that have caused or exacerbated those economic issues.

What are Harris' policies?

Finally, there are VP Harris' policy proposals, or more accurately a lack thereof, as she has yet to roll out any sort of serious breakdown of what she would actually do in office if she wins the election, per The Washington Post.

Of the few policy positions of Harris that are known, they are typically copies of Biden's policies and the opposite of the far-left progressive proposals she put forward in her dismally failed 2020 campaign that ended before any primary votes were cast, which plays right into the hands of Republicans in their effort to define her and her stances in the minds of voters.

"It’s clear the Kamala Harris who wanted to ban fracking, who supported Medicare-for-all … couldn’t win Pennsylvania or a single swing state," GOP campaign consultant Corry Bliss told The Post. "The average voter does not have a well-defined vision of her, so we have a great opportunity to define her simply on her record."

Harris "remains ill-defined" while Trump is known and "priced-in" by the electorate

To be sure, Democrats and the media will continue to herald Harris as a supposedly moderate savior of the nation while viciously attacking Trump as "weird" and off-base from what the American people want in a president.

Yet, per FT, they would be unwise to count on that as a winning strategy, as "Above all, after almost a decade of chasing or holding the White House, Trump’s oddities are priced-in. Harris remains ill-defined and only half-tested."

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