Harris campaign memo calls Trump 'a formidable opponent' with 'a motivated base of support'

By 
 September 2, 2024

Many Democrats seem to have experienced a rush of confidence since Vice President Kamala Harris became their party's nominee.

However, a recently obtained memo suggests that campaign insiders are far from certain about her chances in November. 

Trump has "more support and higher favorability" than in the past

According to the Washington Examiner, the document was authored by Harris campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon, and it concedes that the former vice president has reason to be concerned.

"Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020," Dillon wrote.

"In just a few short days, Vice President Harris will face Trump on the debate stage, where we expect him to be a formidable opponent," she continued.

Dillon went on to recall how "[i]n 2020, the election came down to about 40,000 votes across the battleground states. This November, we anticipate margins to be similarly razor-thin."

Polling data shows tight race in critical swing states

Yet Dillon then asserted that Harris campaign "has the candidate, the infrastructure, and the grit capable of expanding their support to build the type of broad, diverse coalition that wins elections."

"This race will remain incredibly close, and the voters who will decide this election will require an extraordinary amount of work to win over," the campaign chairwoman acknowledged.

She concluded by saying, "But we have the candidate, message, and operation that brings Americans together to chart a new way forward, so we can once again defeat Donald Trump."

A polling aggregate maintained by Real Clear Politics gives the vice president a 1.8% lead over Trump in the national popular vote.

However, the website gives Trump a slight edge in the critical swing states of Georgia and Arizona while both candidates are tied in November, a state which Democrats have not carried for two decades.

Commentator: Republican enjoy an Electoral College advantage

What's more, Politico contributor Steven Shepard argued in an article published this week that Harris' meager lead may not be enough.

"Because of Republicans' advantage in the Electoral College, a race that Harris leads nationally by between 2 and 4 percentage points, on average, is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states," he wrote.

"The polls are extraordinarily tight in all of them, and that isn’t expected to change much over the next nine weeks," Shepard added.

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