Former Clinton pollster Doug Schoen reveals Trump making gains among minority, working-class voters in battleground states

By 
 October 12, 2024

A Democratic pollster and pundit who previously was closely aligned with former President and first lady Bill and Hillary Clinton, Doug Schoen, just offered up some bad news for his fellow Democrats that will undoubtedly have some of them infuriated.

Schoen revealed that, from what he's observed, former President Donald Trump has made substantial gains among working-class minorities that could threaten the Democrats' hold on certain critical swing states, the Daily Caller reported.

If Schoen and the polling data he referenced are accurate, and Trump really has significantly increased his standing among black and Hispanic voters, who are critical to Democratic electoral success, then his eventual victory in November's election could be all but assured.

Bad news for Democrats

Schoen recently appeared on Fox News with host Laura Ingraham and discussed what he had seen that led him to believe that former President Donald Trump has a good chance of winning most, if not all, of the so-called "blue wall" swing states in the Rust Belt, as well as the crucial battleground states in the Southeast and Southwest.

"I think what we’re seeing is the working class vote is moving in the direction of Trump," Schoen explained of the polling he's seen. "Non-college educated voters, blue-collar men, are all moving in Trump’s direction."

"Some movement, as you suggested, Laura, among minorities in Wisconsin, African Americans, to Trump," he continued, though he noted that similar trends were apparent in other swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

"Basically, the blue wall in Wisconsin and Michigan is eroding as the South -- defined as Georgia, North Carolina, Southwest Arizona -- appear to be trending Trump," Schoen said. "We’re looking now at five states, five swing states, that are potentially Trump’s."

"If Pennsylvania goes, the election is over, all the trends are showing the same movement," he added. "It’s not over, you’re right, but it sure is moving Trump’s direction."

Trump leading in most of the swing states

While the specifics about movement toward former President Trump aren't readily apparent in the RealClearPolling average of polls for the 2024 presidential election, Schoen's comments about the all-important swing states trending toward the GOP nominee are verifiable.

To be sure, the RCP average continues to show that Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a modest lead of 1.8 points, likely within the margin of error, over Trump in the national polls.

That said, the national popular vote doesn't matter -- much to the consternation of some Democrats -- and it is the results in each individual state and the Electoral College that determine who the president will be.

In that regard, RCP shows that Trump holds slim leads over Harris, admittedly also within the margin of error, in six of the seven major battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, with Harris holding a similarly slim lead over Trump in Wisconsin.

Loss of minority support could doom Harris

As for Schoen's talk of minorities and other critical demographic groups shifting toward Trump, the Daily Caller noted that most Democratic nominees in prior elections have secured 90+% support among black voters, but VP Harris is currently only drawing around 70% support in most polls.

It was also noted that Harris has slipped from a double-digit to a single-digit lead over Trump with union voters, another typically Democratic mainstay, while polling suggests that Trump has made sizeable gains among Hispanic voters and blue-collar workers of all races, particularly those who attended a trade school instead of college.

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