Biden's lead over the 2024 Democratic Primary field drops: poll

March 25, 2023

U.S. President Joe Biden's lead over his Democratic 2024 rivals has dropped in a new poll. 

Biden, in this new poll, is not doing particularly well in the 2024 general election either.

The new poll comes from McLaughlin & Associates. Between March 16 and March 20, 2023, the pollster surveyed 1,000 likely general election voters.

The pollster asked participants a number of questions about the current state of affairs here in America, under the leadership of Biden and his administration. But, the pollster also asked participants a number of questions related to the 2024 presidential election.

Biden leads the Democrats, but not by much

McLaughlin & Associates asked likely 2024 Democratic primary voters:

"Thinking ahead to the 2024 Democratic primary election for President, if that election were held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?"

Biden did come out on top of the Democratic field with a plurality of 23%. Second place went to former first lady Michell Obama, who received 14% of the vote. And, third place - 6% of the vote - went to current Vice President Kamala Harris.

But, the bad news for Biden, besides not receiving more widespread support from Democratic voters, is that Biden's support, here, is trending in the wrong direction.

On this same poll from McLaughlin & Associates, Biden received 26% in February and he received 25% of the vote in January. So, the 23% that he just received is his lowest mark in quite some time.

Trump clearly sits atop the Republican field

While Biden is trending in the wrong direction, former President Donald Trump is trending in the right direction. He clearly sits atop the Republicans' 2024 field, according to the McLaughlin & Associates poll.

Trump, on the poll, received 46% of the vote from participants who identify as likely 2024 Republican presidential primary voters.

As has been the case with many recent polls, second place went to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who received 23% of the vote. Then, there is a huge dropoff to third place, which went to former Vice President Mike Pence, who garnered only 5% of the vote.

Considering Trump's near-majority and Biden's small plurality, the numbers would seem to indicate that Trump is likely to receive higher support from - and thus a higher likelihood of being nominated by - his party in the 2024 presidential primary than Biden is likely to receive from the Democrats.

Biden v. Trump

What poll after poll makes clear, though, is that it is looking more and more as though 2024 will be a rematch between Trump and Biden.

McLaughlin & Associates did ask participants who it is that they would vote for in this head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden. And, Trump wins.

The pollster found that, were the 2024 presidential election to be held today, Trump would have a 48% to 43% edge over Biden.

The McLaughlin & Associates poll makes it clear that Biden is trending in the wrong direction - both with the Democrats and with Americans in general.


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