Iowa poll shows Trump's support marginally increased after New York conviction

 June 18, 2024

The undeniable intent of the multiple criminal prosecutions arrayed against former President Donald Trump by the Biden administration and Democratic prosecutors is to demoralize his supporters and drive away fence-sitting independent voters.

Yet, just a few weeks after Trump was convicted in New York of falsifying business records, voters in the key state of Iowa remain overwhelmingly in support of re-electing Trump over incumbent President Joe Biden in November, the Des Moines Register reported.

That seems to track with other state-level and national polls that appear to show very little overall change in the presidential race following Trump's guilty verdict.

Trump's support ticks up in Iowa following New York guilty verdict

A recent poll conducted by the Register earlier this month found that 50% of voters in the Hawkeye State supported former President Trump compared to 32% who backed President Biden, with another 9% aligned behind independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the remainder scattered among other third party candidates or still undecided.

That is actually a slight improvement for Trump over the same poll's results in February, when the former president led the current president by a margin of 48-33%, with 15% split among other candidates.

One resident of Waterloo, Donald Share, 63, told the outlet that he became a Republican precisely because of Trump and that wasn't about to change because of the conviction in New York, which only served to strengthen his resolve to support the embattled presumptive GOP nominee.

"His convictions on these charges are part of the reason my mind is made up," he said. "The more they try to get him out of the picture, the stronger they make him. I, for one, believe that the charges are bogus."

Trump poised to win Iowa with bigger margin than last election

To be sure, that is the expressed view of just one voter in Iowa, but it seems like a safe bet to presume that he is far from alone in feeling that way, and other polls in Iowa and elsewhere would appear to support that supposition.

The recent results of the Des Moines Register poll will likely boost former President Trump's already commanding lead over President Biden of 11.5 points, according to the RealClearPolling average for Iowa.

If that holds, Trump would defeat Biden in the state in November by a wider margin than in 2020, when he won by 8.2 points, and in 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 9.5 points.

Trump still leads Biden nationally by same margin as before

There is little doubt that Democrats and the media were expecting, if not counting on, former President Trump to suffer a major drop-off in support following his conviction in New York last month, but that isn't exactly what happened, at least according to the RCP average of national 2024 general election polls.

Yes, Trump's polling support plummeted from 47.6% support the day before the conviction down to 45.1% about a week later, but has since tracked back up to 45.8%. Yet, at the same time, President Biden's numbers followed a nearly identical trajectory over the same time frame, and Trump's lead remains virtually unchanged -- 0.9 points before the verdict to 0.8 points now.

Another metric from RCP that suggests Trump's conviction has had little if any impact on the electorate is the fact that the former Republican president continues to lead his Democratic rival by similar margins now as before in all seven of the most important battleground states.

But perhaps most telling of all is RCP's comparison of the current 2024 race with the 2020 race, when Biden led Trump by 8.8 points on this same date four years ago -- a situation that suggests Trump is cruising to electoral victory despite the array of legal obstacles placed before him by Democratic prosecutors and judges.

" A free people [claim] their rights, as derived from the laws of nature."
Thomas Jefferson
© 2015 - 2024 Conservative Institute. All Rights Reserved.