New 2024 poll has DeSantis ahead of Trump

February 25, 2023

According to the Washington Examiner, a newly-released poll has Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) beating former President Donald Trump in the Republicans' 2024 presidential primary. 

Before going too much further, it ought to be pointed out that, while Trump has announced his 2024 candidacy for the U.S. presidency, DeSantis has not.

Still, several signs point to a 2024 bid for DeSantis. And, many believe that it is only a matter of time before DeSantis does make the big announcement. Some reports have even indicated that DeSantis is targeting late May or early June for the announcement.

In the meantime, polls continue to indicate that Trump and DeSantis, by far, are the two more popular candidates to win the Republican nomination for the U.S. presidency in 2024. If the polls are accurate, then the only question left is whether it's going to be Trump or DeSantis representing the Republicans.

A new poll

The poll referred to at the outset comes from WPA Intelligence. The pollster surveyed "1,000 verified GOP primary voters" between February 13 and 16. It is not clear what the poll's margin of error is, but it is unlikely to be nine percentage points.

This is the number of percentage points that the pollster has DeSantis leading Trump. The final score is 40% for DeSantis to 31% for Trump.

No other Republican candidate comes close.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence both came in at 8%. Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) garnered 5%.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo received 2%. Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan got 1%. And, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) came in last place with less than 1%.

Trump appears to be in the lead, on average

In recent months, particularly since the midterm elections of 2022, there has been a trend in which major outlets have only been reporting on 2024 Republican primary polls when DeSantis tops Trump.

The fact of the matter, though, is that there are plenty of polls in which Trump continues to top DeSantis. A recent Harvard Caps/Harris poll, for example, has Trump beating DeSantis by an overwhelming 23 percentage points, 46% to 23%.

Real Clear Politics' poll aggregator has Trump beating DeSantis, on average, by 12.8 percentage points, 43.3% to 30.5%. In fact, every poll included in Real Clear Politics' aggregation has Trump winning, and significantly.

Polls such as the one from WPA Intelligence seem to be outliers. And, it is not immediately clear why this poll is so much different than the others.

It is clear, however, that, as things currently stand, it is going to be Trump or DeSantis winning the GOP's presidential nomination in 2024.

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