Poll shows Trump's lead in Florida falling to 4 points following guilty verdict

 June 9, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has long held a commanding lead in Florida, with a poll from April giving him an eight-point advantage over President Joe Biden.

However, a new survey conducted after Trump's recent criminal conviction suggests that some of advantage may have been nullified. 

Trump only leads Biden by four points

According to Newsweek, the poll was carried out on behalf of Fox News between June 1 and June 4 by Shaw & Company Research among 1,075 registered Florida voters.

It showed Trump as being supported by 50% of respondents whereas 46% favored Biden. Newsweek recalled how in 2020, Trump took 51.2% of the vote compared to Biden's 47.9%.

However, the magazine also noted that Trump's lead grew to seven points when voters were also given the option of selecting independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West along with Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

In that scenario, Trump's level of support fell to 47% while his successor's dropped to 40%. Kennedy picked up 7% as West and Stein collected 2% and 1%, respectively.

Biden sees drop in African American support

The survey further found the current president to be winning 52% of independents, 51% of college graduates, and 51% of urban residents in the Sunshine State.

Biden was also shown to be supported by 69% of black voters. While that is a sizable majority, it is far smaller than the share of African Americans who backed him four years ago.

Meanwhile, Trump is preferred by 76% of white evangelical Christians, 66% of those who live in rural areas, and 54% of voters without college degrees.

Republican Daron Shaw conducted the poll alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, and he attributed Trump's fall in support to last month's guilty verdict.

Pollster expects Biden to gain "a single percentage point due to the verdict"

"Since the vast majority of partisans have already made up their minds, we should look to those without a party attachment to see what the likely impact of the verdict will be," Shaw was quoted as saying.

"Roughly 14 percent of the electorate is truly independent, and about one-quarter of them say Trump's conviction will matter 'a great deal' for their vote. The implication is that Biden may gain a single percentage point due to the verdict," he added.

However, Newsweek pointed out that the Fox News poll is something of an outlier, with a survey aggregate from RealClearPolitics putting Trump eight points ahead of Biden.

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