The Amish people just might propel former President Donald Trump to victory in the important swing state of Pennsylvania. 

This is suggested by a new report from Fox News.

The report is predicated on the premise that "Pennsylvania’s election is likely to go down to the wire Tuesday."

At the end of this article, we will look at the latest presidential polls from Pennsylvania. To give you a sneak peek, Trump does seem to have the edge - but it is close.

The deciding vote?

If the 2024 presidential election is close, then Fox suggests in its report that the Amish population could play a big role - they could swing the election in Trump's favor.

Fox notes:

The Amish-Mennonite community has long been a reliably conservative group, given its devout faith, humility and reluctance to engage with aspects of contemporary societal norms such as driving cars and using cellphones.

The outlet goes on to quote U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA), the first Amish-born member of Congress, to support the proposition that there is a significant change occurring in the Amish community that could be beneficial for Republicans.

Smucker said:

You have a minority of the Amish who are now farming and agricultural. They ran out of land in Lancaster County a long time ago. So, there's a new generation of Amish who are business owners. So, they're becoming much more engaged politically than their parents were.

To help put things into perspective, it is estimated that about 90,000 Amish individuals live in Pennsylvania. If the vast majority of these individuals vote Republican, that could be bad news for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats.

Background

In federal elections, Pennsylvania tends to be a hotly contested state, and it would appear that this is also going to be true in the 2024 presidential election.

The latest polls all have the race between Trump and Harris within the margin of error.

Real Clear Politic's poll aggregator currently has Trump in the lead by a mere 0.4 percentage points, which is not much of a lead at all.

In terms of individual polls, most have Trump in the lead by a percentage point or two, some have Trump and Harris tied, and an even small number of Harris in the lead by a percentage point or two.

Things, however, have been trending in Trump's favor, and something else to point out is that President Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton were both leading Trump at this point, in the polls, in the 2020 and 2016 elections.