Polling guru Nate Silver says polls tend to underestimate Trump's actual numbers

By 
 August 15, 2024

For reasons not completely known, Vice President Kamala Harris is doing much better in the polls than many believed possible, given her numbers were in the garbage just a few weeks ago, where they've been through most of her vice presidency. 

Some of those polls even signal that she's besting former President Donald Trump, causing a surge in popularity for the Democratic presidential candidate.

However, according to Fox News, polling guru Nate Silver cautioned that polls, when it comes to Trump, aren't as reliable as they are in elections with more traditional candidates.

Polls in elections with Trump have never really gotten it right, and as proven in the last two elections, have underestimated him greatly, especially in 2016.

What did he say?

Harris continues to make headlines as new polls give her a slight edge in a number of important states, giving Democrats more to talk about and more hope that Trump can be beaten.

In a recent Fox News interview with Bret Baier, Silver explained his thinking on the situation as it stands, and what's to come in the coming months.

"If you have the election tomorrow… I think Harris would be a slight favorite," Silver said Wednesday on "Special Report."

Silver added, "She has been ahead in most recent polling in the ‘blue wall’ states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada all polling in the margin of error range."

He then cautioned those getting too excited about Harris that they need to realize Trump's ability to pull much higher numbers than the polls often indicate.

"People should remember, though, two things," he added. "One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections they underestimated Trump."

Current thoughts

Earlier this month, Silver made headlines by giving Trump the edge in the Electoral College, but gave Harris the win in the popular vote category.

Given Harris' surge in swing-state polling, Silver altered his forecast, as Fox News noted:

Silver recently changed his election prediction to "toss-up" after initially predicting former President Trump was electorally favored to win the White House in November, with Harris winning the popular vote.

Unfortunately, Silver predicts that the election, no matter what, will be close.

"Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning," Silver said. "And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the running."

" A free people [claim] their rights, as derived from the laws of nature."
Thomas Jefferson