If you were asked right now, who is more popular? Would you answer: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or Kamala Harris? If you answered Donald Trump, you'd be right. If you look at polling across all the prominent party leaders, Donald Trump is sitting at 43.3% favorability, which is a high point for him. Biden and Harris are both at 38%. For all the talk of how the Presidential race is reset, not much has changed. 

In the RealClearPolitics averages, the last time Kamala Harris had a positive approval rating was June 27, 2021. Since then, Harris has had some of the worst approval numbers. Harris has been more broadly unpopular than Joe Biden, who last held a positive approval rating on August 30, 2021. 

It's also true that Donald Trump is broadly unpopular. After hitting a low of 35.9% favorability in December 2022, Trump's popularity has trended back up to 43.3%. 

It's hard to realize this during the media onslaught declaring Harris has changed the race. The number of puff pieces and friendly media coverage has been so slanted that it borders on comedy. The so-called adversarial press wanted Biden out of the race and hung up their credentials as soon as that task finished and put on their Democratic cheering hat.

It's not just me saying this. Steve Kornacki on MSNBC and Harry Enten on CNN both did segments warning their audience about the realities of a Harris candidacy. Kornacki told MSNBC listeners that Harris's candidacy was based more on a "hope" of what she could do than data. Enten warned CNN listeners that Harris would struggle with young voters.

If any of this seems familiar, it's because these are the same points raised regarding the Biden campaign. Biden's campaign team has been underwater since September 11, 2023, and never regained a lead. Donald Trump does not need to win the popular vote to win the electoral college, but he's squarely on pace to do that.

These conclusions follow other data points like the Generic Ballot, where Republicans hold a slim edge. Trump's edge in the national polling is mimicked, if not outright enhanced, in battleground state polling. 

Does that mean Donald Trump is a lock to win? Of course not. Nothing is guaranteed in this world. But it does tell us that the "race reset" crowd, being pushed by major media outlets, is revealing more Democratic hopes and dreams than hard data. If Harris is going to win, she needs to reverse her unpopularity and figure out how to win in the Midwest. 

Specifically, Harris will need to win the state of Pennsylvania, which is, by far, the most important state this cycle. If you only gave me the Pennsylvania results on election night, I could probably tell you how the rest of the night goes for Trump and Harris. 

Donald Trump can lose the entire Midwest and several southwestern states and win the Presidency if he wins Pennsylvania and takes North Carolina and Georgia. The same applies to Harris; the electoral map opens up considerably if she captures Pennsylvania. 

That's why it's notable that Trump holds leads against Biden and Harris in Pennsylvania. Trump's lead in the averages is getting close to being outside the margin of error for most polls. 

Donald Trump does not have to do much to win. He must only sway around 50,000 to 100,000 votes across a set of swing states to win the race. Polling suggests he's reversed losses in places like Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Now, everyone looks to the Midwest. If Trump reverses what happened in those states, he will win. If Trump takes the southwest states, he only needs one of the Midwest states, with Pennsylvania looming as the largest. 

There's been no race reset. Democrats simply aren't as depressed over Harris as they were with Biden. The billionaire donor class of the Democratic Party is happy, too. But once you get back on the ground, the reality is that Harris is behind and has work to do.

According to leaked memos, Trump's campaign began preparing for Biden's exit from this race in May. They view Harris as getting a honeymoon period for the next few weeks, possibly through the convention period and whoever she nominates as the Vice Presidential candidate. 

Once the fluff is gone, gravity will start to reassert itself. Convention bounces are always minor in polling, so this is a safe bet. Democrats are talking themselves into Harris being a good option right now, which will boost her popularity with hardened partisans of the left.

Can Harris win? Certainly, but right now, little data suggests that will happen. We'll need a steady set of data that tells us the race has changed before saying the race is truly reset. And since we don't have that data, we're all getting to ride the waves of the Democratic media's hopes and dreams.