In February 2014, Russia invaded Crimea and declared a full annexation of the region into Russia by March of the same year. The Obama State Department tweeted, "The world stands #UnitedforUkraine. Let's hope that the Kremlin & Russia will live by the promise of hashtag." That was essentially the full scope of Western intervention, which resulted in significant upheaval in Ukraine.

After the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations ignored the Crimea incursion, Putin doubled down and committed to a full invasion of Ukraine. Biden's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan led to a rapid gathering of troops at the border between Russia and Ukraine. Biden claimed leaking intelligence on Russia would deter them.

He was wrong. Russia invaded.

Instead of giving up, Ukraine nobly fought off the Russian invasion. Vladimir Putin believed he could topple the entire country in a few days, a few weeks at most. Instead, within days, it was clear the war would be a grind. Russia's incompetent military, though numerically superior, couldn't maintain an offensive of any kind.

The war continued until Ukraine launched a series of shocking counter-offensives in the summer of 2022, which pushed Russia out of critical cities. At this point, Ukraine had the most leverage it needed in the conflict. They had the military upper hand, and the West was triumphant over Russia's losses and getting pushed back. This moment was when Biden should have gone for peace.

He did not.

The war has slogged on ever since, with some wins and losses by both sides. But now, Russia is in territories where it cannot be dislodged by the Ukrainians. A New York Times analysis in January summed it up: "Ukraine is losing fewer soldiers than Russia—but it is still losing the war."

A more recent study from the Institute for the Study of War, the most optimistic outlook for the Ukrainians, notes that Russia hasn't broken Ukraine. The Russian military holds the country's eastern side, but they can't make it any further. And what Russia has the most on its side is two things: time and more people. Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition, which is what this is now.

It was incumbent upon the so-called realists in the Biden administration to bring an end to the conflict when Ukraine had the most leverage. Instead, the unofficial strategy in the White House was one in which the conflict raged on indefinitely. The goal from the Biden White House was simple: Ukraine didn't matter, but severely degraded Russia's military did.

The U.S. pushed a policy that kept Ukraine in the fight but prevented them from landing devastating knockouts. Europe, while it talks a big game, continues sending more cash to Russia for oil and energy than it does in Ukraine aid. In essence, the Europeans hug Zelenskyy for photo-ops while funding Russia on the very war they claim to hate.

That's why after the Oval Office blow-up between Trump, Vance, and Zelenskyy, those same Europeans ran out to support Ukraine but changed nothing about their relationship with Russia. If Europe was serious about ending this war and bringing an end to it, they'd halt all oil flows from Russia and cut off Putin's economy at its knees.

They did not.

Instead, we get the idiotic bleating from green groups about the need to electrify everything and produce no domestic energy. If you were to suddenly tell me Greta Thunberg and the rest of the environmentalist movement was a dormant USSR psy-op, I'd have a hard time disproving it. Western elites loved Gorbachev for his environmentalism and gave him a pass for the brutality of the Soviet communist system. Environmentalists are the best allies Putin has ever had.

Trump ran to end the war. He has no interest in Biden's indefinite war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia. If the world wants a prolonged conflict, specifically Europe, it can actually pony up, fund it, and fight Russia on its terms. Trump views China as the greater threat, and given that Obama coined the "Asia pivot," it's hard to see where those two are wrong.

It will take time to determine whether Trump is ultimately right. But the biggest question facing the United States is what the end of this war should look like. Ukraine, like it or not, does not get to dictate the terms of a conflict that the United States is funding. It's not in the United States' interests to be in a prolonged proxy war against Russia, another nuclear power. 

The Cold War is full of examples of the Americans and the Soviets pushing smaller countries around to prevent broader conflicts against each other. Preventing nuclear conflict requires hard decisions, and the war in Ukraine is one of these. If Europe wants to wage a proxy war against Russia, it can end its socialist healthcare and government programs and fund the defense necessary to accomplish that.

Instead, Europe is pushing Zelesnkyy back to a minerals deal with the United States. It doesn't want to fight Russia or give up the American defense umbrella. Trump's push for peace is one that should have been done several years ago when we had better leverage. Trump getting the minerals deal at least gives the U.S. some leverage with Russia by stating we will be in the country in some way moving forward.

Ukraine will not get the defense guarantees or NATO membership that it wants. I don't blame Zelenskyy for asking for them. The man is fighting for his country and doing everything possible to save it. Anyone in his position would do that. He'd be an idiot not to try - but no Democrat or Republican would ever grant those requests.

But America cannot afford - fiscally or militarily - an indefinite proxy war in Ukraine. Draining Russia's military does not maintain peace or stability. That means peace and rare earth minerals deals are the only path forward.