Betting markets still give Michelle Obama a slight chance to win 2024 presidency

By 
 March 19, 2024

Former first lady Michelle Obama has made it known that she has no desire or plans to run for president in 2024, yet bettors still believe there is a small chance that she will ultimately win the 2024 presidential race in November.

While former President Donald Trump is the clear favorite of election bettors with a 47.9% chance of victory, followed by President Joe Biden at 37.9%, Obama had the highest chance of any other potential contender for the presidency at 3.6%.

Some bettors still like Michelle Obama to be president

The Election Betting Odds site tracks and averages the various election betting markets, which some analysts believe are more accurate than polling at predicting results, to find where bettors are putting their money in the upcoming presidential election.

Interestingly enough, while former first lady Obama has a 3.6% chance of winning the presidency in 2024, according to bettors, her name is not specifically listed among the various contenders for the Democratic Party's nomination -- though she would likely fall within the 4.2% of bets that predict the nominee will be somebody "other" than President Biden, who has an 84.3% chance.

The former first lady's name has frequently been floated as a possible last-minute replacement for Biden if, for some reason, the incumbent ultimately doesn't run for re-election in November.

In that regard, bettors believe there is a 10.5% chance that Biden will resign from office before his first term is complete, a move that might open the door for a surprise candidate to run in his place.

Michelle Obama "will not be running for president"

Those bettors who are playing the long odds on a Michelle Obama presidency in 2024 may be wasting their money, however, at least if a recent statement released by the former first lady's office is to be believed.

According to an NBC News report earlier this month, Obama's communications director, Crystal Carson, stated, "As former First Lady Michelle Obama has expressed several times over the years, she will not be running for president."

"Mrs. Obama supports President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ re-election campaign," Carson added as the outlet noted that unnamed sources with insider knowledge claimed that Obama intended to provide some assistance to the Biden-Harris effort, same as she did in 2020, in a "fairly limited" capacity.

That is said to be reflective of her other prior commitments as well as "her long-standing reluctance to re-enter the political fray full time."

Will reportedly assist Biden-Harris campaign in a "limited role"

According to the NBC News report, Michelle Obama's "limited role" in assisting the Biden-Harris campaign will likely come later in the campaign, when more voters begin paying attention to the upcoming election, and could include some sort of "alignment" between the campaign and Obama's supposedly nonpartisan organization When We All Vote, which is intently focused on registering voters and boosting turnout from key Democratic constituencies like young adults and minorities.

A spokesperson for the Biden-Harris campaign, Kevin Munoz, told the outlet, "President and Michelle Obama were enormously helpful in the fight to beat Donald Trump and elect President Biden and Vice President Harris the first time and we are grateful to have their voice and their support in the fight for the fate of our democracy this November."

As for the persistent rumors that Obama will run for office herself, perhaps as a replacement for Biden, one of her aides pointed NBC News to a 2022 BBC interview in which the former first lady said she "detests" questions about the presidency as well as a 2023 interview with Oprah Winfrey in which she seemed to rule out ever running for any political office.

"Politics is hard," Obama told Winfrey in a special that aired on Netflix. "And the people who get into it … you’ve got to want it. It’s got to be in your soul, because it is so important. It is not in my soul."

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