In poll of unlikely voters, Trump tops Biden handily

 September 7, 2023

In a poll of unlikely voters, including unregistered voters and those who haven't regularly voted, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by a healthy margin. 

The Suffolk University/USA Today survey showed that unregistered voters preferred Trump to Biden 27.5% to 15%. Another 28% said other (5%) or undecided (23%), 8% said they wanted Green Party candidate Cornel West and 7% wouldn't answer the question.

Among registered voters in the poll, 32% said they preferred Trump, 13% wanted Biden, and 33% said other (7.25%) or undecided (26%).

The poll rated Trump's favorability at only slightly higher than Biden's, 27.5% to 23.5%. The poll was just about even between Democrats (14%) and Republicans (13%), but most said they were independent (29%), something else (32%), or just wouldn't answer (12%).

Is it relevant?

The poll may not have a lot to say about how people will actually vote in 2024, since even 54% of the registered voters in the poll didn't vote in 2020 and the group as a whole said they were "not at all likely" (66%) or "not very likely" (20%) to vote.

Still, it points to trends among society in general that show more of a lean toward Trump than Biden, and a great many people unsatisfied with the current likely candidates.

Voters and Americans in general have been unhappy with Biden because of his age and perceived mental decline, inflation attributed to his huge spending bills, open borders allowing millions of illegal immigrants into the country, a botched pullout from Afghanistan that got 13 Marines killed, and allegations of corruption involving his family members and foreign payouts.

Voters fault Trump for, in part, due to all the things stemming from either his presidency or the current indictments.

An unusual situation

It's unusual historically that candidates this damaged would be frontrunners for their parties' respective nominations. In past election cycles, the parties would seek stronger candidates, but in today's highly polarized political climate, there is less room for deviation from the accepted positions and for new faces to gain traction.

The algorithms must be telling them that it's better to stick with the less-than-stellar candidates they have than to try someone new.

Why else would party leaders ignore polls that say over 70% of voters think Biden is too old or that 54% of voters say they will never vote for Trump, no matter what?

It would be great if we could move away from the leaders of the past (and present) and toward something new that could be a breath of fresh air for the country.

Could get worse

Unfortunately, things could get a lot worse for both Biden and Trump before the general election.

Trump could end up in jail, and Biden could end up impeached--both of which could weaken them further and make candidacy untenable.

" A free people [claim] their rights, as derived from the laws of nature."
Thomas Jefferson
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